NBA Season Preview 2019-20: 10 players most likely to be first-time All-Stars

7. John Collins

Why he’ll make it:

Say what you will about John Collins‘ lack of rim protection and other defensive flaws, but that kind of nuanced discussion rarely serves as much more than a final tiebreaker when it comes to All-Star deliberation. To that end, the 19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game on .560/.348/.763 shooting splits he averaged last season stand out a bit more, even if this feels like Trae Young’s team now.

The problem is the guard pool is usually more crowded, so if Young gets off to another slow start, Collins’ steady production might make him the more favorable Atlanta Hawks candidate. After all, a 20-10 season isn’t out of the question.

Why he won’t make it:

If Young’s second-half burst was no fluke or case of small sample size, he’ll quickly be identified as Atlanta’s best player and most deserving All-Star candidate, no matter how crowded the guard pool is. That could leave Collins on the outside looking in since the Hawks are unlikely to win enough games to warrant two All-Stars.

Collins is a better defender than Young, but that’s not saying much considering how bad Young is on that end, so even that slight advantage could easily be overlooked. Collins will be in the discussion, but if push comes to shove, the new face of the franchise will get the nod instead.