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EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 10/19/19

By Vince Dray

Bournemouth's English striker Callum Wilson (R) vies with Arsenal's German goalkeeper Bernd Leno (L) during the English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium in London on October 6, 2019. (Photo by Tolga AKMEN / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)
Bournemouth's English striker Callum Wilson (R) vies with Arsenal's German goalkeeper Bernd Leno (L) during the English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium in London on October 6, 2019. (Photo by Tolga AKMEN / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images) /
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LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 05: Liverpool’s Georginio Wijnaldum takes on Leicester City’s James Maddison during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Leicester City at Anfield on October 5, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Dodd – CameraSport via Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 05: Liverpool’s Georginio Wijnaldum takes on Leicester City’s James Maddison during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Leicester City at Anfield on October 5, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Dodd – CameraSport via Getty Images) /

EPL DFS Mid-Tier Attackers

James Maddison (Burnley @ Leicester, $15) – Anyone who read my EPL DFS Breakdowns last season knows how much I loved to play Maddison last year.  That has not been the case whatsoever so far this season.  His chances created, assists, and defensive peripherals are all down this year, but so is his price tag.  Maddison has just scored goals in back to back games against tough opponents so I’m hoping that jumpstarts his season.  Leicester’s attack has been great on home turf with 10 goals in 4 games.  Although Burnley is a decent defensive team, Maddison has more than enough skill to break them down and create chances.  A guy with this kind of talent who has just scored in 2 straight games is impossible to come by at only $15.

If you have another $2, Jamie Vardy ($17) is worthy of consideration on this slate.  His price is down in this matchup even though 4 of his 5 EPL goals this year have come at home.  Normally I would have some interest in Wilfred Ndidi ($15) but he’s too far on the expensive side for me to really consider him on Saturday.

Danny Ings (Southampton @ Wolverhampton, $14) – Opposing strikers on the road against Wolverhampton used to scare me away last year, but it’s a different story so far this year with Wolves giving up 1.75 goals per game at home.  Ings has a goal in consecutive games, and he’s the most likely player on Southampton to score and push his streak to 3 straight games.  Ings is risky because his peripherals are almost nonexistent.  However, he is a nice mid-tier guy who can get you a low-owned goal.

Anwar El Ghazi (Brighton @ Aston Villa, $13) – I am surprised to see El Ghazi still this cheap after his 2 assists and 36.9 total fantasy points last game.  He’s already underpriced given his 19.4-per game average, but if you look at his 3 most recent games, that per game average jumps to 28.4 which is more than double his price.  Sure, Villa hasn’t been the best at home but Brighton on the road is a matchup to take advantage of.  El Ghazi isn’t much of a scorer (but he does have 2 goals in 8 games), but I’m really after his peripherals more in this matchup.  He’s one of the better cheap attackers on this slate.

Jack Grealish ($15) has been bright lately too and is worth a look for a lot of the same reasons as El Ghazi.

Willian (Newcastle @ Chelsea, $15) – Even as a Chelsea fan, it feels a little weird to be writing up Willian with the form he was in to begin the season.  However, he has 2 productive fantasy games in a row, and now he gets a porous Newcastle defense.  Remember that Chelsea is our slate’s 2nd largest favorite and Willian has 4rd best odds out of Chelsea starters to score.  He’s also capable of providing an assist and creating multiple chances.  His defensive peripherals are looking nice lately as well.  His ownership will be very small, and he’s a nice secondary Chelsea piece.

Dele Alli (Watford @ Tottenham, $13) – There isn’t much to say here for Alli.  He’s had a tough go of it dating back to last season injury-wise and he’s spending a lot of time on the bench.  Some people think he could earn a start on Saturday, and if he does, I’m definitely looking to him for some valuable exposure to a terrible Watford defense.  Obviously, he comes with a significant risk of being subbed out, reinjury, or a complete dud game, but his pure talent also gives him goal upside for cheap.