NFL DFS bargain bin- Week 7 Sunday slates
NFL DFS bargain bin: Week 7 Running Backs
Marlon Mack, IND vs. HOU:
(DraftKings-$6,000/FanDuel-$7,100/FantasyDraft-$10,900/Yahoo-$26)
Mack carries upside befitting a much higher price tag, as he’s demonstrated on a couple of occasions already this season. He’s also had a chance to rest a previously sore ankle over the bye and should therefore be raring to go against a Texans team that’s been a bit more vulnerable to the run than one might assume, given the talent in their front seven.
Houston comes into Week 7 having allowed 26.2 DK/FantasyDraft and 22.1 FanDuel/Yahoo points per game to running backs, along with 4.4 yards per carry. Furthermore, no team has allowed more receptions (49) or yards (402) to the position.
In turn, Mack already has 132- and 174-yard performances on his ledger this season and is a capable receiver out of the backfield when called upon. He also runs behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in running back yards facilitated (4.7 per carry), second-level yards per carry generated (1.25) and open-field yards per carry generated (1.29).
Conversely, the Texans’ defensive line ranks in the bottom 10 in both of the latter categories (1.25 second-level yards/0.90 open-field yards per carry allowed) and will also have to deal with Mack’s 11.9 percent broken-tackle rate, one of the best figures in the league.
Josh Jacobs, OAK at GB:
(DraftKings-$5,000/FanDuel-$6,700/FantasyDraft-$10,600/Yahoo-$25)
Like Mack, Jacobs will be refreshed coming off a bye week and has impressively upped his involvement in the Raiders offense with each contest. He now walks into a matchup against a Packers squad that’s had much more trouble defending the run than the pass. The rookie running back produced his first 100-yard rushing game against the Bears in London before the bye, and he’s rushed for at least 79 yards in three of his other four games as well. What’s more, Jacobs’ passing game involvement has started to see an uptick, as he produced a 5-49 line through the air (five targets) over the last two games before Oakland’s off week.
The Packers will come into Week 7 allowing the ninth-most running back rushing yards (644) and tied with several teams for most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position (seven). Green Bay has also allowed a 35-280-1 line through the air to RBs, and the 5.0 yards per carry they’re surrendering on the ground ranks as the fifth highest in the NFL. What’s more, there’s a sizable mismatch on paper between the two lines.
The Raiders’ offensive line owns the second-highest success rate on power runs (88.0 percent), has allowed the second-lowest percentage of stuffed runs (12.0 percent) and has facilitated the 12th-most open-field yards per carry (1.22). In turn, the Packers’ D-line has surrendered the fifth-highest power-run success rate (88.0 percent), along with the sixth-highest second-level yards per rush (1.27).