NASCAR DFS Picks 10/20/19: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
NASCAR DFS Mid-Tier Options
Ryan Blaney
Okay, Ryan Blaney is priced as the ninth driver in terms of salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ve typically done top 10 as Top Contenders, but I think the top eight are a fair range for a true “Top Contender” to build your lineup around. So Blaney falls to the “Mid-Tier Options”, where I will include drivers 9-20.
Blaney is coming off of a huge win at Talladega, securing him a spot in the next round of the playoffs. While he doesn’t need a win or a great performance to advance, he also has nothing to lose and can go for another victory to get him more playoff points.
The 12 car is very fast again this week. He was second to Kyle in pretty much all the “lap averages” I mentioned earlier, and posted top five laps in both practice sessions. Starting third behind a couple guys that don’t typically run up front, Blaney could grab a quick lead and stay there.
Blaney finished third and second in the first two stages of the Hollywood Casino 400 in 2018 and led nine laps before finishing seventh. I think he has a chance to lead a ton of laps, accumulate many “fastest laps”, and has a real shot to repeat in victory lane.
Alex Bowman
After coming oh so close to winning at Kansas in May, Bowman may need that victory this week if he wants to advance in the playoffs. Currently sitting 18 points below the cut line, a win would be the only sure way to overtake on the Penske drivers ahead of him to make it to the round of eight.
Bowman led 62 laps in the race earlier this year, and mustered a ninth place finish in this race a year ago. His average finish of 9.67 over the past five races at Kansas ranks in the top five among active drivers.
The 88 car hasn’t really shown top-two speed so far this weekend, but you never know what may happen come raceday. In Final Practice, Bowman had the 15th fastest lap, and did not run 10 consecutive laps to post an average. He did have the sixth best 10 lap average in First Practice, but only nine cars ran that many consecutive laps.
Bowman will start 16th when the green flag drops on Sunday (at approx. 2:48 pm ET). At the very least, Bowman will need a very strong finish to take advantage of any possible struggles that the drivers above him may have. His playoff fate may be mostly out of his hands aside from a win, but I think Bowman figured out this track in the Spring and will have a very nice run again this weekend.
Clint Bowyer
Clint Bowyer is another driver that needs a win or A LOT of help if he wants to keep his playoff chances alive. Can he make a miracle happen at his home track? Probably not. But he can have a solid day for fantasy players!
The Kansas native will start 21st on Sunday. He has not shown the speed to compete for that victory he needs, but I do think his car will run well enough to improve his position by the end of the race.
The 14 car doesn’t seem to have the greatest short run speed, ranking 15th in First Practice, 19th in Final Practice, and 21st in qualifying. That downward trend is also something you don’t like to see, but is bright spot did come in Final Practice.
During the “Happy Hour” Final Practice session on Friday, Bowyer posted the eighth best 10 lap average. So there is some hope that if there are long green flag runs, Bowyer could pass some cars. And as I mentioned earlier, this race had just three cautions last year, so green flag laps may be plentiful. All the Fords seem to be strong here, so that should bode well for Bowyer as well.
If you do go with Bowyer here, you have to hope that he and his team don’t try to take some drastic measures late in the race to try to get him the win that would soil a solid day. But I think that Bowyer will give it his all in front of his home fans and will end of with a good day, at least by the standards of his fantasy owners who selected him.
Honorable Mentions
Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Matt DiBenedetto