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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, October 24

By Brian Tulloch

Photo by TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP via Getty Images
Photo by TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP via Getty Images /
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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 14: A close up shot of Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors during a pre-season game against the Los Angeles Lakers on October 14, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Which Studs To Build Around?

With Kevin Durant in Brooklyn, DeMarcus Cousins in LA and Klay Thompson likely out for the year, that leaves Stephen Curry ($17.3K) as the last man standing for the Warriors and if there is any one stud to pay up for tonight, I think it is the Warriors guard.

Early in the NBA season we have alot of unknowns with new faces in new places but we have enough fo a sample size the last two years to know what solo Curry is capable of. over the previous two seasons with KD, Klay and Boogie off the court and Curry and Draymond Green ($13.4K) on the court, Curry has a massive 41.4 usage rate and 1.8 FP/M in a 280 minute sample size which represents a a 12% usage increase and half a fantasy point per minute of production.

On a per 36 minute basis, this puts Curry at 64.5 fantasy points which would represent 3.7x value at his price point here tonight which makes him the priority spend here this evening. Now the including of D’Angelo Russell ($14.2K) will obviously make this a bit less of an apples-apples comparison from previous years but Curry is still the clear Alpha Dog here and if you are going to pair him with anyone from Golden State, it would be Draymond would e has the best DFS correlation with of any starter as you can pair Draymond’s peripheral stats with Curry’s scoring prowess.

Speaking of high usage, there is no guesswork with the Clippers Kawhi Leonard ($16.8K) who was sporting a 40.8% usage rate in the opening game of the season which is the highest mark over these first two days of the young NBA season. Considering Kawhi was at 37% in the preseason, this is the kind of burn I think we can expect for as long as Paul Goerge is sidelined.

Want more usage? How about going right back to the well with Andre Drummond ($15K) after his 70 burger last night with the Pistons still being without Blake Griffin. Now you can argue the back to back is a concern, or potential tie-breaker, but the truth is that Drummond has shown no ill effects from a fantasy perspective on a back to back.

The Quant Edge has a great B2B tool and it shows that in 12 games last season on the tail end of a B2B, that his usage rate per game actually increased while his FP/G remained essentially dead even with his “normal” numbers. The B2B for me is more of a concern with guys like Reggie Jackson who was clearly hampered by a back injury last night and the age-less Derrick Rose who was forced to step up with R-Jax clearly hobbled.

Feels odd to leave arguably the best player on the slate to last, but Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18.1K) is the highest-priced player on the slate for good reason. No player in the NBA had a higher usage rate in the preseason than Giannis at 38% which is certainly a massive step up from his 31% rate a year ago. Now Giannis has his usual full fast of Bucks starters around him in Bledsoe, Middleton and Bro-Lo which in of itself, doesn’t scream any real usage bump as it does for the others mentioned but he also isn’t being asked to share the ball with another star and every other Milwaukee starter knows their title hopes lie with their Alpha Dog.

On FantasyDraft tonight, I think going Stars and Scrubs is a necessary path and it is not overly difficult to find paths to get four of these studs into your builds tonight. Curry, Kawhi and Drummond are where my builds begin and having the ability to add Giannis into the mix – well, thats just the Greek icing on the cake.