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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, October 25

By Brian Tulloch

DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after play against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 26, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after play against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 26, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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DALLAS, TX – DECEMBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after play against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 26, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Game Stacks:

While the Booker-Jokic duo may be my favorite 1-1 stack, they may end up being best used as a stand-alone duo around a game stack and the place to start in my opinion is with the Mavericks and Pelicans. 

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Vegas has set this game at a slate high 228.5 game total with only a 2.5 spread so we get the “high and tight” game environment we look for in game stacks with the added benefit that it includes a Pelicans team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league.

Luka Doncic ($16.7K) is the clear starting point here with a 37% usage rate in the opening game in a pace up game environment and the fact he is priced $300 below a likely uber-popular Kyrie Irving ($17K) puts him in position to get lower ownership than he deserves.

Kristaps Porzingis ($13.9K) is the clear #2 here for Dallas but I do worry about the ceiling with KP despite his 30% plus usage rate as he only played 29 minutes in the opener and as the price ticks up, you are going to need him to be incredibly efficient on a per-minute bases to hit his ceiling.

While I am not endorsing it, can I please just point out Tim Hardaway Jr. is $6.9K on FantasyDraft – I mean $900 above the minimum. You know I am tempted.

The real value in this game though may lie on the other side with New Orleans and specifically two guys I was off on Opening Night but I think become viable “post buzz” punts here on Friday. Nicolo Melli ($6.7K) put up 24 FP in 20 minutes in their OT game against Toronto but it wasn’t the box score production that stood out to me, it was his rotations and place on the floor down the stretch of that game.

Melli played 16 of his 20 minutes in the second half/OT and most notably was put into the starting lineup to begin the OT period over Derrick Favors. The other buzz-worthy name on Opening Night was preseason DFS darling Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6.5K) who put up 15 fantasy points in only 12 minutes but again the simply game log doesn’t tell the whole story.

NAW was chucking (and missing) but the sheer volume of 10 FGA and 7 three-point attempts in that span is what catches my eye. Now, granted he went 1-10 from the floor but if he’s getting that kind of volume, any slight uptick in his FG% and he is getting you 20+ fantasy points with ease.

Now the one thing to note here – where Melli was on the floor in crunch time, NAW was a bench fixture, seeing 0 minutes in the 4th or OT but you have to imagine if his shot was falling, that he would have been out there down the stretch. It is a risky play for sure but one with upside.

Let’s not bury the lede here on New Orleans, where Jrue Holiday ($15.9K) is still going to be an elite play with Zion Williamson sidelined. I am not ready to look at one game where his usage was only at 20% and claim defeat because we have a much larger data set with an AD-less Pelicans team that tells us he is still an elite upside play.

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