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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, October 28

By Brian Tulloch

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 23: Ben Simmons #25, Al Horford #42, Joel Embiid #21, and Tobias Harris #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers in action against the Boston Celtics at the Wells Fargo Center on October 23, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 23: Ben Simmons #25, Al Horford #42, Joel Embiid #21, and Tobias Harris #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers in action against the Boston Celtics at the Wells Fargo Center on October 23, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 25: Buddy Hield #24 holds back head coach Luke Walton of the Sacramento Kings as he complains about a call to Josh Tiven at Golden 1 Center on October 25, 2019 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Building Out Our Roster:

One of the things we tend to do in NBA DFS is to chase the “new” news and it makes all the sense in the world to do so in DFS as we can capitalize on pricing inefficiencies before the sites have a chance to correct them. It is why we see chalk develop on a nightly basis as once Player X is ruled out, we lock in Play Y and Z much like we just made the case to stack the Sixers if Embiid is out.

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What we sometimes overlook however is the “old” news – which in today’s NBA could mean the morning inactives versus the late afternoon scratches. However more often than not, what this really means is going back to the news that maybe a day or two old – the plays we were all over on Friday due to injury news or starting lineup changes but a mere 48 hours later seems like it may as well have been last season.

The perfect example of that tonight is the Sacramento Kings who have now played two games over the weekend since the news broke that Marvin Bagley would be out for 4-6 weeks and it pushed the Kings value into the forefront on Friday’s slate.

Well after a 30+ point blowout to the Jazz in Utah that saw nearly every player get limited minutes, the shine is off the Kings value and the game log watchers will see the decrease in minutes and forget all about Sacramento after they likely had 2-3 of the guys in their lineup heading into the weekend.

If we look back at that game Friday against Portland, we saw a starting unit that included Nemanja Bjelica ($8.5K) while De’Aaron Fox ($13.3K) and Buddy Hield ($11.8K) had 18 FGA each.

The chalk value in guys like Bjelica, Dewayne Dedmon ($8.5K) and Richaun Holmes ($7.6K) will likely be forgotten just days later as we gravitate towards the new value like a minimum priced Marquese Chriss and you have to ask yourself – if you were on them Friday as chalk, why wouldn’t you play them tonight?

Dedmon is an interesting case as the Kings may need to push him more against Nikola Jokic and the big Nuggets interior. In Friday’s game the Kings were able to go small down the stretch to match Portland who took Hassan Whiteside off the court, but Dedmon played 21 minutes in that game through the 3rd quarter when Whitside was in the game so with Joker locked into all four quarters – could we see Dedmon’s minutes push up with them?

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