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PGA: WGC-HSBC Champions Course Breakdown and Picks

By George Zainoun

SHANGHAI, CHINA - OCTOBER 23: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays a shot duirng a practice round prior to the WGC - HSBC Champtions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 23, 2018 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
SHANGHAI, CHINA - OCTOBER 23: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays a shot duirng a practice round prior to the WGC - HSBC Champtions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 23, 2018 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /
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SHANGHAI, CHINA – OCTOBER 28: Xander Schauffele of the United States prepares to play his second shot on the 18th hole during the final round of the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 28, 2018 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Matthew Lewis/Getty Images)
SHANGHAI, CHINA – OCTOBER 28: Xander Schauffele of the United States prepares to play his second shot on the 18th hole during the final round of the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 28, 2018 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Matthew Lewis/Getty Images) /

PGA: WGC-HSBC Champions Course Breakdown and Picks

From the photo above you’ll notice the large hazard on the 18th hole and gather that water will come into play on a few holes at Sheshan. It will stretch out to 7,261 yards and will play to a par of 72.

By now we should conclude that most of the Par 72s on Tour rotation will feature four Par 5’s, and this is the scenario here again. The green speeds are famous for being fast at a speed of 12.5-13 in the Stimpmeter, similar to what you might see out of Augusta National. Greens this week are Bentgrass again, and Bermuda and Rye spread amongst the fairways and rough. The putting surfaces at Sheshan are at an average of only 5,000 square feet, much smaller than what we are accustomed to.

Even still, 63% of Greens in regulation have been hit here in the past, but that might have something to do with the quality of the field in general. On the other end Off the Tee numbers are not the best with an average of 58% of driving accuracy nearly 10% less than the tour average. This gives us the green flag to weigh in SG OTT as wayward drives will leave tough angles and lies into these already difficult to putt on greens. We saw a lot of errant tee shots not go penalized last week, it will not be the same at this WGC event.

This course is famous for having the number one most difficult hole on tour, that being hole 4, a 486-yard par 4 that has a .435 score relative to par. This will be interesting to watch as our field will have to navigate that one with caution. We mentioned the 4 Par 5s up top, these 4 holes are yielding an average of 35% of birdies converted. The rest of the Par 4s are in the 400-450 yard range.

In essence, to put it simply, this will be a very long course that will require long and accurate tee shots and a strong long iron game. Aside from 2 shorter par 4s, Hole 16, a drivable 288-yard hole, and hole 7 at 362, our field will have to rely on many shots in the north of 175-200+. We would be doing ourselves a favor in looking at proximities in these ranges in terms of approach shot distribution. Because players are not always going to be hitting the green, I will factor in some scrambling as well since average scrambling percentage is 57% among the field making it quite relevant, especially with an abundance of bunkers, and with several collection areas as previously mentioned.

Here are the Key Stats I like in terms of research and building models if you’re using Fantasy National or sites like Data Golf. I am targetting these in terms of priority from the last 20-30 rounds played.

  • SG OTT 
  • GIR%
  • SG APP Proximity 175-200+
  • 3-PUTT AVOIDANCE 
  • PAR 5 EFFICIENCY
  • SCRAMBLING% OR SG ARG

I  will use these, as usual, to isolate players and also eliminate potential targets that I’m iffy or in between about. It’s important to use the statistics to your advantage, especially in golf, where more than likely a player “fitting the course” will succeed.

On the next few slides, I’ve organized some picks from each price range and tier for Fanduel this week. Sometimes their pricing can be exceptionally soft and exploitable. Let’s have a look.

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