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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, October 31

By Brian Tulloch

Jon Lester (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty images)
Jon Lester (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty images) /
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NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 30: Jahlil Okafor #8 of the New Orleans Pelicans shoots over Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets during a game at the Smoothie King Center on January 30, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Game Stack:

You already know by now on these small slates my typical roster build is to grab a one-off stud and surround them with a full game stack and that is exactly what I intend to do here tonight with Kawhi and a Nuggets/Pelicans game stack.

While we are awaiting an official total for this game due to the probable injury status of Jrue Holiday, there are enough factors here that make this an ideal game stack environment. The Pelicans are playing at the fifth-fastest pace of play to start the season, consistent with their mark in the second half of last year, and also happen to have a bottom three team defensive rating – so fast-paced and no defense? I like it.

The Nuggets meanwhile are one of those rare teams in the NBA with a condensed starting rotation as they lean heavily on their starting five for 30+ minutes a game. The safest route here tonight is to lock in the 1-2 punch of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray but I think depending on your build you can make an argument for any of the secondary plays like Paul Millsap, Will Barton and/or Gary Harris. The minutes are secure assuming this game can stay close (which with Holiday back and it being in New Orleans I believe it will) but understand you are playing a bit of a roll of the dice with the Nuggets secondary pieces on any given night.

The Pelicans side is far tougher to sort through but with Derrick Favors listed as doubtful, we should get some much-needed value with Jahlil Okafor ($6.6K) and Kenrich Williams ($7.3K). While Okafor drew the start against Golden State, it was Williams who saw the far majority of run but with the size of the Nuggets interior, I think there is a far clearer path to minutes for Okafor tonight and at the discount, I think he is the best value option to utilize in this game stack.

The big question here is what do we do with Jrue Holiday and how does his return impact the value of guys like Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart, who have excelled from a fantasy perspective in the games Jrue was out.

Holiday ay $16K on FantasyDraft I think could end up being the make or break decision tonight. Going into this year we all anchored back to the data set of previous years without Anthony Davis and how much Holiday’s usage and FP/M production increased – it is why his price remains that high despite the fact he has only an 18% usage rate in 70+ minutes of court time this season.

The question is – what do you believe? Is Holiday the near 30% usage player with 1.3 FP/M production we saw last year with AD/Randle off the court or is he taking a massive step back in a two-game sample size?

The fact he is priced thousands more than guys like DeMar DeRozan as an example leads me to believe people will balk at his price and I think for that reason he makes for an ideal GPP play. Put it this way, you wouldn’t have thought twice about playing him a week ago at this price with Favors confirmed out, are you going to let recency bias take you off of it now?

Well, kids – this is where we sign off for the final time here at FanSided Fantasy – thank you all again for reading along with me each and every day for the last three years and feel free to stop by my Twitter @2LockSports  as we prepare for what is next.

One last time – Jon Lester, you sir are a fraud.

WE OUT!