Believe it or Not, College Football Playoff expansion is inevitable

Believe it or not, the College Football Playoff needs to expand from the four-team model and at least double to an eight-team playoff.

The college football rubber is beginning to meet the road. Big rivalries are going on, the first College Football Playoff ranking of the year is only a day away, and more unbeatens fell from grace in Week 10.

With all this going on, FanSided college football experts Patrick Schmidt and Michael Collins tackle the prospect of playoff expansion, the magnitude of the upcoming SEC scrap between LSU and Alabama and a possible upset in the Big Ten.

Believe it or not, College Football Playoff expansion is inevitable

Schmidt: Believe it

I love we have the College Football Playoff and think it’s one of the best things to happen to the sport in the last 20-25 years or so. So yes, I think it should expand on the basis of if the four-team playoff is good, then surely, an eight-team format would be even better. If four pieces of pizza are good, eight pieces would be better, right?

That’s my line of thought with this question. I would be fine with a four-team playoff but an eight-team would be so much better to extend the debate of who is the best, who is the most deserving, who is the ninth-best team that should get in so we can talk about expanding to a 16-team tournament?

An eight-team format may feel like it’s rewarding above-average teams rather than rewarding excellent teams, but you don’t see the NCAA Tournament shrinking March Madness down to just the Final Four, do you?

I’d just like to see a little more variety and teams from more conferences. The first playoff rankings on Tuesday might have two SEC teams and two Big Ten teams. Give me a little more representation from teams from across the country. I’d like to see every Power 5 champion given an automatic bid then three spots go to the highest-ranked teams who didn’t win their conference. In some instances, this might even include a Group of 5 team.

It would still allow the opportunity for the SEC and/or Big Ten to have more than one team represented. But the best benefit of an expanded playoff field is it could inspire teams to schedule tougher non-conference games at the beginning of the season to enhance their strength of schedule and playoff resume.

Teams are rightfully hesitant to schedule the toughest opponents because they know one loss can end your season. So sign me up for that and sign me up for an expanded playoff field. It’s inevitable just like Thanos in Infinity War.

Collins: Not

I can completely understand the outcry for an expanded playoff. There are times when even I think to myself that it might be a good idea.

Then I look at the NCAA basketball tournament.

Part of the beauty of college football is its finality. You spend an entire week building up to a game, and then it’s over. That result can make or break a team’s season in some cases. While that might sound unfair as compared to other sports, it’s what makes this sport so unique.

In practically every other sport — college or professional — regular-season records mean nothing other than a means to an end. Teams who lumbered through a big part of a season can get hot at the right time and win it all. That doesn’t mean they’re the best team, it just means they had good timing.

In college football, the regular season is a kind of de facto playoff. Every week matters, some even more than others, and those who stay strong and win throughout the season are rewarded.

The other part of the College Football Playoff that makes it special is precisely why some want it expanded – exclusivity. It’s hard…damn hard…to get into the College Football Playoff, and it should be. For too long the sport suffered under the yoke of sportswriters who didn’t take the polls seriously and computers who turned the national championship race into a sabermetric nightmare.

I won’t argue that some tweaking and polishing of the criteria used to determine who the final four teams to reach the playoff should be, but leaving it at four is the best thing for the sport and short of Alabama being awarded all four spots in the same year, I don’t think it will change.

Believe it or not, Alabama can beat LSU without Tua

Schmidt: Not

Nick Saban said Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision as he recovers from his ankle procedure to repair a high-ankle sprain but I fully expect him to suit up and play. If he’s 100 percent and looks like the Tua we’ve seen all season and last season before he had the same ankle injury to the other side, I think Alabama will prevail and be the new No. 1 team in the nation. Even if Tua is out there but he’s clearly hobbled by the ankle, then I think it’s a totally different game.

LSU can score with Alabama and on this Crimson Tide defense, that’s not the typical dominating unit we’ve seen in year’s past under Saban. This is going to be a high-scoring affair but if Mac Jones has to play, I’m not going to have the same confidence in the Alabama offense as I would with Tua. LSU can stop a Jones-led Alabama offense but could Alabama stop a Burrow-led LSU offense? That’s why Alabama can’t beat LSU without Tua. Without Tua, LSU might win by double-digits.

Collins: Not

It’s become very obvious since Jan. 8, 2018 just how important Tua Tagovailoa is to the Crimson Tide. But do you know who was more important?

Jalen Hurts.

Nick Saban could go into any game at ease with the knowledge that should his number one quarterback go down, his number two guy was nearly as good as a replacement. With the Tua-Jalen combo, Alabama had zero quarterback worries.

I’m not taking anything away from Mac Jones, who was a more than suitable replacement against a team who hasn’t won an SEC game since October of 2017, but against LSU Jones would be in over his depth.

This is a ferocious rivalry and arguably the biggest regular-season game of the year, and that stage would simply be too big for Jones right now.

Believe it or not, Joe Burrow can wrap up the Heisman vs. Alabama

Schmidt: Believe it

Joe Burrow took the Heisman lead when Tua got hurt in the second quarter vs. Tennessee and that’s all it took for the LSU quarterback to get the edge. If LSU beats Alabama and Burrow has a typical Burrow game, he’ll have an insurmountable lead, provided he stays healthy for the rest of the season. But I also feel the same way about Tua. If Alabama wins behind a strong offensive attack from Tua, then I think he’ll have the insurmountable lead over Burrow. The winner of this game will be the Heisman winner. The loser will likely be the runner-up with Jalen Hurts, Chase Young and Justin Fields rounding out the top five.

Collins: Not

If anything keeps the Heisman out of Burrow’s hands it will be LSU’s end of season schedule.

With an impressive performance against Alabama, Joe Burrow can go ahead and book his flight to New York, because he’ll be invited as a finalist to the Heisman Awards ceremony. But it won’t be on lock just from playing well in this game.

Burrow will still need to outplay Chase Young and Jalen Hurts in those last few weeks of the season. If either of them has huge games in some big rivalries (Young against Michigan and Hurts against Oklahoma State) then Burrow will need to one-up them in his final tuneups for the postseason against Arkansas and Texas A&M — not exactly two games that will have Heisman voters glued to their screens.

Believe it or not, Urban Meyer will be the next coach at USC

Schmidt: Believe it

Urban Meyer is going to have some nice options if he wants to get back into coaching. He’s been a great addition to FOX’s college football coverage and think he could be outstanding on TV if he really wanted to lean into this second phase of his life, but I don’t think he’s ready for that.

Florida State already has an opening after firing Willie Taggart and Notre Dame may have an opening if Brian Kelly pursues other opportunities or if Notre Dame just decides a change is necessary. I think they’d do the latter if they had a chance at Meyer and wanted him at all costs. I don’t think that’s really gonna happen though.

That leaves USC where Clay Helton will be relieved of his duties one of these next few Sundays before the year is up. USC is a little further along than FSU, but not quite the essentially ready-made programs he inherited at Ohio State or Florida.

But he has a young quarterback in Kedon Slovis to mold and a glorious recruiting advantage he could make his own in California where Oregon, Washington, Alabama and other schools have raided the state’s top talent while USC has let too many elite players get away. Meyer would fix that and I think USC knows that. It’s a no-brainer.

Collins: Not

I think there’s a very good chance Meyer steps in as the next USC head football coach, but I can’t say with certainty that’s the job he really wants.

There’s something brewing at Notre Dame, and Brian Kelly is — in my opinion — on his way out either by his own choice or the school. USC is a prestigious job, but Notre Dame is even more so, and Meyer is lured by prestige and the spotlight.

Meyer had a strong interest in the Notre Dame job before he took the head coach position at Florida, and despite his declaration that Ohio State was his “dream job”, I think coaching in South Bend would be the way he wants to end his career.

Look for Meyer to keep his cards close to his vest for now, and if there’s a shakeup at Notre Dame, he’ll jump right in. If it looks like things will remain status quo there, then — provided USC hasn’t already found someone else — he’ll throw his name in the hat to coach the Trojans.

Believe it or not, Minnesota will be James Franklin’s annual upset special

Schmidt: Not

P.J. Fleck has done a great job getting Minnesota undefeated in November and getting the students and program excited about Minnesota football again. I still don’t know how good they are despite their 8-0 record.

I feel far more confident in saying Penn State is a better 8-0 and think their defense is one of the best in the nation. I would love to see Minnesota make it a competitive game as a casual observer but I don’t think it’s going to work out that way for the Gophers. I don’t think there’s any way Penn State is overlooking an 8-0 Minnesota team ahead of Ohio State in two weeks.

This isn’t a trap game, but it is a road game and winning on the road is tough, so it could be a one-possession game, and the 6.5-point opening line suggests it’ll be close. But no, I don’t think Penn State will let Minnesota hand them their first loss of the year.

Collins: Believe it

James Franklin made his name creating chaos in the SEC as the head coach at Vanderbilt. He took a doormat program and turned them into a dangerous opponent who could (and often did) upset the seasons of teams with bigger goals than just being bowl eligible.

Since coming to Penn State, the tables have turned on Franklin and he’s become the Mark Richt of the Big Ten. Each year it seems there’s one team who pulls off the unlikely upset and spoils the party for the Nittany Lions.

Welcome to Minneapolis, Coach Franklin, and your yearly derp.

The Golden Gophers aren’t just an upset-minded upstart looking to play spoiler, this is an exceptionally coached team with playoff goals of their own. More importantly, they match up well against Penn State, probably better than any team on PSU’s schedule. Both teams rank among the best in the nation both defensively and offensively.

What will put the Gophers over the top is playing at home in the most significant game Minnesota has played in decades.

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