Fantasy football week 10: Exploitable inefficiencies

Find out which players you should be considering when entering your NFL DFS lineups this week.

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 10!

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA, a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Defenses struggling against the pass and stout against the run:

Atlanta: 30th Overall (Pass: 31st, Run:10th)

New Orleans will host the visiting Falcons, in a game in which both teams are returning from a bye last week. Teams across the league handle the time off differently, so that has recently caused these types of matchups to become much more difficult to predict. That being said, when evaluating the coaches, I think it’s a no-brainer to side with Sean Payton, with extra time to prepare, rather than Dan Quinn.

In addition to the coaching mismatch, the Saints will have obvious advantages on offense, particularly through the air. The Atlanta defense has been abysmal, coming in as the 30th-ranked defense, and noticeably worse against the pass. The Saints come in with the eighth-overall offense, in offensive efficiency, and this includes the chunk of time without Drew Brees. Other than Minnesota (ranking seventh) and Seattle (ranking third), this will be the most difficult opposing offense that Atlanta has had to face.

The bye has appeared to also favor the Saints, from an injury perspective. Not only will Brees have another week to recover, but New Orleans is expected to have Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Tre’Quan Smith, all back and healthy for this week. I’ll have plenty of ownership on Brees, Thomas, Kamara, and Ginn.

Oakland: 29th Overall (Pass: 29th, Run: 11th)

New York Jets: 19th Overall (Pass: 25th, Run: second)

Tampa Bay: 16th Overall (Pass: 26th, Run: first)

Tennessee: 12th Overall (Pass: 20th, Run: third)

Defenses struggling against the run and stout against the pass:

Green Bay: 20th Overall (Pass: 13th, Run: 26th)

After a head-scratching performance last week, Green Bay will return home to face the Carolina Panthers. While this game may not end up being one of the highest-scoring of the week, I think there is a key mismatch to target in this contest.

It’s no secret that Christian McCaffrey is having an incredible year, and he’s essentially playable every week, however, he should absolutely smash in this spot. Green Bay has been killed on the ground all year, ranking 26th in rush defense efficiency. Other than Dallas, Carolina will be the toughest opponent in rushing offensive efficiency (fifth) that Green Bay has faced.

One important piece to monitor as we get closer to kickoff is the weather at Lambeau Field. Not only are temperatures expected to be below freezing, but the winds are currently being projected for 15 MPH. Wind is much more valuable factor than temperature, but when it comes to extreme temperatures such as this, it should be noted. I would expect both teams to lean on the running games a bit more given the conditions, and for Carolina to have plenty of success on offense.

Indianapolis: 18th Overall (Pass: 11th, Run: 27th)

Buffalo: 15th Overall (Pass: fifth, Run: 30th)

Kansas City: 11th Overall (Pass: fourth, Run: 28th)

Carolina: 9th Overall (Pass: third, Run: 32nd)