College Football Playoff chaos theory: Anarchy that will shake-up the status quo
By John Buhler
Gonna need a little help here
Alabama Crimson Tide: 8-1 (5-1)
Falling at home to LSU may have been too brutal of a blow for Alabama to overcome. The Crimson Tide lost its first home game at Bryant-Denny Stadium since dropping one to Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss Rebels back in 2015. It’s been that long, but this loss has definitely crippled Alabama’s reasonable chances of reaching the College Football Playoff. But for now, they are still alive.
Alabama isn’t probably going to reach the SEC Championship this year. The Crimson Tide will need LSU to lose twice in the Tigers’ final three games. Don’t see that happening. If Alabama were to win out, the Crimson Tide’s best win would be over at least a three-loss Auburn team. If Auburn were to lose at home to Georgia on Saturday, Alabama’s best win would be over a four-loss team.
So we should expect to see Alabama finish the regular season at 11-1 (7-1) with its one loss at home to LSU. But if there is any one-loss, non-champion that doesn’t play in a conference title bout that gets in, it would be Alabama on past reputation mostly. That being said, Alabama will want Auburn to beat Georgia to help their case and needs LSU to win the SEC Championship.
Alabama can still win the SEC but needs LSU to crater in November. If Georgia beats an undefeated LSU in the SEC Championship, Alabama isn’t getting in. A one-loss non-champion Alabama would fight for the last spot with a one-loss Big 12/Pac-12 champion. A one-loss non-champion Ohio State and maybe even a one-loss non-champion Minnesota should edge them out.
Oklahoma Sooners: 8-1 (5-1)
The second team that is still alive in the Big 12 would be Oklahoma, who have one road defeat against the Kansas State Wildcats on their resume. Oklahoma would have been eliminated from Playoff consideration if the Iowa State Cyclones would have upset them last week. If the Sooners fall in Waco to Baylor, their Playoff dreams are over and so maybe their New Year’s Six hopes.
It’s pretty simple really for the Sooners to stay alive in the Playoff mix: Oklahoma has to win out. Getting a big road win in Waco vs. Baylor would be a huge resume booster, as would a win over in-state rival Oklahoma State in the regular-season finale. Throw in a win at home over TCU and Oklahoma could be 11-1 (8-1) in time for a rematch with Baylor in Arlington.
Should Oklahoma beat Baylor twice, the Sooners should be in a position to either the last team in or one of the first two teams out. It’ll be either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl as the lower seed or the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 Champion. Oklahoma won’t do better than maybe the No. 3-seed in this year’s playoff field.
What it’ll come down to as a one-loss Big 12 Champion is if the Sooners’ resume is better than a one-loss Pac-12 Champion, a one-loss non-champion in either the SEC or the Big Ten, or a two-loss SEC Champion Georgia team. Oklahoma would edge out a two-loss SEC Champion Georgia and a one-loss Alabama, but not a one-loss Pac-12 champion or a one-loss LSU or Ohio State.
Oregon Ducks: 8-1 (6-0)
Oregon is one of two teams in the Pac-12 that can still get in. Like every team on this slide, the Ducks control their own College Football Playoff destiny, but like many, they must win out to become a one-loss Power 5 champion. Getting a Pac-12 Championship win over hopefully a one-loss Utah Utes team might be enough to get the Ducks in after going undefeated in the Pac-12.
The Ducks’ only loss was Labor Day Weekend in a neutral-site affair against the Auburn Tigers in Arlington on the last play. The Selection Committee affords teams the opportunity to get better as the season progresses, plus going undefeated in conference play is something it won’t overlook. Let’s not forget that Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens is the committee chair so that matters.
The only way that the Ducks don’t get in as a one-loss Power 5 champion is if the LSU Tigers, the Clemson Tigers, the Baylor Bears and either the Minnesota Golden Gophers or the Ohio State Buckeyes go 13-0 and win their conference champions. Then, the Ducks have no one to blame but themselves for not getting in. Thanks a lot, Auburn!
But having four undefeated Power 5 champions doesn’t seem all that likely. One would think that a one-loss champion Oregon team would get in over a one-loss Big 12 champion and potentially a one-loss non-champion SEC or Big Ten team. It might be the hardest decision the Committee will have to make, but going 9-0 and winning the Pac-12 has to mean something, right?
Utah Utes: 8-1 (5-1)
Utah is the other Pac-12 team that is still alive for the College Football Playoff. Should the Utes win out and beat presumably Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, they’d probably get in as a one-loss conference champion, but may not edge out a one-loss Big 12 champion or a one-loss non-champion from either the Big Ten or the SEC. The reason is Utah’s loss is worse than Oregon’s.
While Oregon lost a neutral-site game to Auburn, Utah once again lost to USC in Los Angeles. Having one conference loss to USC is worse than Oklahoma losing to Kansas State, Baylor potentially losing to Oklahoma and Penn State losing to Minnesota. Georgia losing to South Carolina is worse, but winning the SEC with only one loss is better than winning the Pac-12.
Utah probably needs Clemson to lose a game to ensure that its Pac-12 title will count the same as other Power 5 conferences. Sadly, it’ll mean more if Oregon wins it because the Ducks would have gone undefeated in Pac-12 play, something the Utes can’t do this season thanks to the USC loss. Utah would probably need a two-loss team to win either the Big 12 or the SEC as well.
At best, Utah winning the Pac-12 as a one-loss team would be seen as the third-best conference championship. It’s very likely to be viewed as the fourth-best championship and potentially the fifth-best. A one-loss non-champion that plays in the title bout like LSU, Minnesota or Ohio State might get in over them. They edge out Baylor, but not Alabama or Ohio State as an at-large.