Five free agent targets to complete a perfect offseason for the Atlanta Braves
2. Zack Wheeler
Madison Bumgarner is very high on the Braves wish list this winter, but their first choice, all things considered, should be right-hander Zack Wheeler. The 29-year-old is younger and continuing to ascend after finally getting healthy, whereas Bumgarner is on the decline and has thrown over 1,000 more innings in his MLB career, not even including the playoffs. There’s obviously some consideration for the fact that Bumgarner has been able to throw all those innings and remain relatively healthy, opposed to Wheeler, who missed almost all of three seasons battling elbow trouble.
If Bumgarner and Wheeler are seeking similar contracts – in terms of annual salary or duration – the Braves should make Wheeler their choice. He is 23-15 over the last two seasons with a 3.65 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine while allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine. Pitching in a more challenging division, he has been better than Bumgarner over the last two years and has better peripheral statistics.
The Braves do need to add to their rotation, but won’t be able to make a realistic effort to sign either of the two aces, Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. They’ll look to fill out their rotation with Wheeler or Bumgarner. Bumgarner may be the cheaper option given how much wear and tear he has on his arm, but Wheeler has higher upside.
The direction the Braves go in to finalize their rotation will depend on what they hope to accomplish. Bumgarner could fill a similar role to former Cy Young Dallas Keuchel – a veteran innings-eater to take the pressure off the younger starters. Wheeler has the potential to join Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson as a legitimate number two starter who can string together months where he pitches like a number one. Bumgarner can still command a high salary for what he has already accomplished, but Wheeler might come closer to living up to a big number.