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Fantasy football Week 15: Exploitable inefficiencies

By Matt McGarvey

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 08: Quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams fakes a handoff to running back Todd Gurley #30 during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 08, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 08: Quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams fakes a handoff to running back Todd Gurley #30 during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 08, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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Find out which players you should be considering when entering your NFL DFS lineups this week.

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 15!
Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA, a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Defenses struggling against the pass and stout against the run:

Arizona: 28th Overall (Pass: 29th, Run: 13th)

New York Giants: 25th Overall (Pass: 28th, Run: 12th)

Tennessee: 18th Overall (Pass: 23rd, Run: 5th)

New York Jets: 12th Overall (Pass: 22nd, Run: 2nd)

Tampa Bay: 10th Overall (Pass: 19th, Run: 1st)

Defenses struggling against the run and stout against the pass:

Carolina: 23rd Overall (Pass: 8th, Run: 32nd)

Cleveland: 16th Overall (Pass: 13th, Run: 25th)

Kansas City: 13th Overall (Pass: 6th, Run: 30th)

Baltimore: 4th Overall (Pass: 3rd, Run: 21st)

Inefficient Defenses:

Dallas: 22nd Overall (Pass: 24th, Run: 19th)

Los Angles will head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a game in which Dallas opened as a three-point favorite. Since opening this line has moved all the way through the zero, to now having Dallas as a one-point dog. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has been on the move as well. The game total opened around 48 and has since been bet up to 49. All of this movement points to the Rams having success on Sunday.

One factor that may be at play here, for both teams, is motivation. The Rams are fighting for their playoff lives. Dallas on the other hand will have its biggest test the following week against Philadelphia. While it’s usually a pitfall to try to project individual team motivations, the game this week means very little to Dallas.

If you watched the Dallas game last week, FOX color commentator Troy Aikman pointed out the glaring weakness of this Dallas defense: simplicity. On paper this is one of the most athletic and impressive front sevens in the league. Coming into the season, we thought it would be a top 10 defense in the league given the rising stars, but that’s been far from the case. If the Cowboys don’t add in new wrinkles, head coach Sean McVay and Co. could pick them apart.

Another factor is the Rams are finally healthy. With Todd Gurley retaking control of the backfield, as well as having Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks all playing, this offense is a well-oiled machine. As always, the key will be keeping Jared Goff upright, but they should be able to do so, on Sunday.

Houston (27th Overall) and Tennessee (18th)

Houston will head to Tennessee to take on the Titans in a critical AFC South battle. This will be an interesting game to watch, as Tennessee has become a completely different team with Ryan Tannehill under center.

In Weeks 1-6, Tennessee ranked 17th in explosive play rate. Since Tannehill was named the starter, they now rank first in the league in explosive play rate, at 13 percent (Sharpfootballstats.com).

This post may seem like a mirror image of the last week, but for good reason. All of that same rational applies in the matchups this week. Tennessee will draw another enticing opponent as they face the Texans, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency.

It’s worth noting that Houston is noticeably susceptible through the air, however this Titans’ offense can get it done through the air and on the ground. After hanging 42 points on Oakland, I’ll be loading up on this offense again this week. I’ll be overweight on Tannehill, Henry, Brown, and Davis.

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