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Way-too-early 2020 college football rankings: Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama vie for No. 1

By Nicholas Ian Allen

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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SAN DIEGO, CA – DECEMBER 27: USC Trojans quarterback Kedon Slovis (9) drops back to pass during the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl football game between the USC Trojans and the Iowa Hawkeyes on December 27, 2019 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – DECEMBER 27: USC Trojans quarterback Kedon Slovis (9) drops back to pass during the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl football game between the USC Trojans and the Iowa Hawkeyes on December 27, 2019 at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

10. USC Trojans, 8-5 (7-2)

Oh no, here we go again. The USC Trojans are set to enter 2020 ridiculously over-hyped, especially given the program’s history of underachieving over the past decade. Plus, head coach Clay Helton’s permanent hot seat status has doomed USC’s recruiting efforts over the last two cycles. And Helton’s decision making, and the staff he hired to support him, been part of the problem on the field, too.

Those are all fair points, and on a personal note, I’m slightly terrified to have USC as the preseason favorite in the Pac-12. I won’t be reading the comments.

Nevertheless, consider: USC finished the 2019 season ranked No. 4 in the Team Talent Composite and No. 10 in CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength. The Trojans’ average player rating according to the 247Sports Composite (.8922), ranks eighth. Plus, the Trojans expect to return 100 percent of their 2019 passing production, 99.0 percent of its rushing yardage, and though elite receiver Michael Pittman, Jr. is out of eligibility, 70.0 percent of the team’s receiving yardage total should be back.

That’s 88.96 percent of last year’s total offensive yardage (plus four starters on the offensive line) which will operate under offensive coordinator Graham Harrell for a second season. Last year, FBS teams returned an average of 61.77 percent of their offensive yardage. Only Minnesota (94.70 percent), Utah (91.03 percent) and Indiana (89.96 percent) returned a higher percentage among Power Five programs a year ago.

The Trojans must replace leading tackler John Houston, Jr. on defense, but the next 12 leading tacklers return, and overall 85.75 percent of the team’s tackling production from 2019 should return. That group includes elite players like Talanoa Hufanga, Palaie Gaoteote, Jay Tufele and Drake Jackson, all of whom are among the best at their positions in the Pac-12.

You might laugh, and understandably so. I’m a little embarrassed myself. This might look incredibly stupid in September if the Trojans are blown out by Alabama in the season opener, or later if they lose in Eugene, Salt Lake City, or at home to Washington. But I’ve got to trust my numbers, and at this point, based on the strength of its roster and its returning production, USC should be the highest-rated team in the Pac-12. Despite a difficult schedule, the Trojans could be a dark horse College Football Playoff contender.

9. Oklahoma Sooners, 12-2 (8-1)

Is losing a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback even a preseason concern at Oklahoma anymore? As long as Lincoln Riley returns as head coach and offensive architect of the Sooners (which is less than a 100-percent certainty given open the head coaching positions in the NFL), Oklahoma will be among the most dangerous offenses in college football in 2020 despite losing Jalen Hurts. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who turned pro early, leaves a hole as well, but the Sooners have recruited well.

Defensively, the Sooners made strides in 2020, but a lack of depth in the secondary doomed the squad in the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma must also replace its best defensive player, linebacker Kenneth Murray, who declared for the draft. Nevertheless, expect the Sooners to be the early favorites to win the Big 12 – again.

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