Early DraftKings NBA picks January 20: Is Giannis worth it?

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($9,800): This is technically a good matchup for Harden and Russ, but both of them have underwhelmed in the two meetings against the Thunder this year. In fact, Russ has done better against his former team than Harden has. Neither are bad picks, but on a slate this large, I see no reason to go for this if you’re not convinced they will have a good game. There are better options.

Trae Young ($9,500): This is a tough matchup for Young, but he blew up on the Raptors for 64.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I am a little nervous about the poor performance in the blowout loss to Detroit. Do you believe that’s the normal or was what Trae did to them the first time more towards normal?

Honorable Mention:

Ja Morant ($8,200): The price is getting up there for Morant which does limit the upside. Still, Morant has only been under 32 DraftKings points once this month. The matchups don’t get any better than this for Morant. The Pelicans have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to point guards. The rookie could be in for a big game here.

Lonzo Ball ($7,000): I’m worried about what the return of Holiday will do to Ball, but if Holiday is out again, Ball is pretty much a lock. He has at least 5x value in all but one of the seven games with Holiday out and has broke 6x at this price four times. That’s a good floor and a very high upside for this price.

Chris Paul ($6,800): Paul’s output has only been seven points per game below Harden and ten points per game below Russ head to head in the two meetings this year. He has been the better bargain in this matchup. Will that continue? For the price on Paul, it’s certainly worth finding out. Russ and Harden is a lot more risky.

Dark Horses:

Kendrick Nunn ($5,800): Nunn has been playing a lot of minutes of late and he has earned that right. Nunn has at least 29 DraftKings points in four straight games. We would like to see him a little less reliant on scoring and passing better, but that hasn’t come to fruition yet. Still. Nunn is solid across all categories and a capable scorer. This price seems low.

Elfrid Payton ($5,300): Payton’s minutes have really fluctuated of late, which is exactly what we hated about Fizdale. If we knew that Payton was going to play 30-35 minutes, he’s a lock. The absence of Barrett also leaves some production out there for Payton to soak up. The upside is nice in theory, but the fluctuating minutes are a concern.

De’Anthony Melton ($4,900): The price is getting uncomfortable since we know the alpha of the backcourt has been on a roll lately. That has seemed to help Melton. He has at least 5x value at this price in three out of the last four games. With as poor as the Pelicans are defensively, I think Melton still makes value at this price, but the upside is capped.