Bracketology: Will Texas Tech make NCAA Tournament?

Texas Tech basketball was in the National Championship last year, but could Chris Beard’s team be closer to the NIT than the NCAA Tournament this year?

Head coach Chris Beard piloted Texas Tech basketball to a magical run all the way to the National Championship game last season. Expecting the Red Raiders to duplicate that feat this March would be a mistake, but it also doesn’t mean Beard’s squad can’t cause serious problems for opponents in March Madness.

Of course, if Texas Tech wants to make headlines in March, they need to make sure they receive an invite to the party. Fortunately, the Red Raiders are well-positioned to receive an at-large berth on Selection Sunday.

There’s still plenty of work to be done in Lubbock though before anything is certain. Texas Tech sits squarely in the middle of the Big 12 standings with a conference mark of 4-4. The strength of the league makes that a respectable record, but it doesn’t give Beard’s team a ton of margin for error down the stretch.

The Red Raiders would be well advised to get their work done before the last week of the regular season. The team will play eight straight games against unranked opponents before closing the campaign at Baylor and at home to Kansas. Texas Tech has the ability to pull upsets in either of those games, but they do not want to enter the last week of the regular season needing to score a high-profile win for their tournament resume.

If this team is going to make a run down the stretch, they’ll need freshman sensation Jahmi’us Ramsey to continue his stellar play. He’s easily been one of the top first-year players in college basketball this season. The Texas native not only leads his team in scoring at 15.9 points per game, but he also does it with devastating efficiency. Shooting 43.2 percent from distance on the year has powered Ramsey to a phenomenal offensive season to date.

Ramsey will need more consistency from backcourt mate Davide Moretti if this team is going to really take a step forward. The Italian junior has enjoyed some big games on the year, but his teammates need him to be a front line scorer every night. Moretti’s struggles were particularly evident against Kansas’ athletic wing defenders in his team’s three-point loss in Lawrence. Moretti only managed to contribute an inefficient nine points in his team’s narrow loss to the Jayhawks.

The good news for Texas Tech fans is their team’s trademark defense has remained a constant this season. The group isn’t suffocating opponents quite to the degree it did last year, but giving up 64.1 points per night still gives the Red Raiders a chance to win every time they take the floor.

Don’t be surprised if those defensive numbers start to creep up the standings over the next several weeks. The schedule will soften up for Texas Tech in the immediate future.

The big key for this team will be to take care of business down the stretch. They don’t necessarily need to win eight straight Big 12 contests, but going 6-2 would likely lock up an at large berth for Texas Tech before their nightmare finish to the conference slate. Beard and his staff must make sure their players don’t take the series of unranked teams they’re set to play lightly. If that happens, Texas Tech can be vulnerable to upsets due to its lack of consistent offensive firepower.

Racking up some wins down the stretch will also help Texas Tech secure a more favorable match-up in the Big 12 Tournament. If the team does struggle against Kansas and Baylor in their last two regular-season games, they’ll need to produce some momentum in their conference tournament. That task becomes much easier if they can secure a top-half finish in the league.

Texas Tech fans are understandably concerned about their teams’ inability to close the deal at home against Kentucky or on the road at Kansas in recent weeks. Either win would’ve given the team a massive boost on Selection Sunday.

Fortunately, neither game was a must-win for the team. They’ve done enough to feel comfortable, but not cocky about their chances of making this year’s NCAA Tournament.

As long as Texas Tech stays on their current course they should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

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