Here’s what to expect with Chris Jones and the Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs love Chris Jones, but do they love him enough to pay out $100+ million despite a tight cap situation?
Chris Jones is going to very expensive. The Kansas City Chiefs have a decision to make.
Jones, 25, is the NFL’s best defensive tackle not named Aaron Donald. He’s earned Second-Team All-Pro honors, a Pro Bowl berth and a Super Bowl ring over the past two years. A second-round pick from Mississippi State in 2016, Jones has outplayed his expected value, notching 33 sacks over his rookie deal, including a career-best 15.5 in 2018.
Now, Jones is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency. Kansas City has $13.7 million in projected cap space this offseason, while being able to roll over an additional $21.8 million from this year, according to the NFLPA.
According to a league source, the Chiefs’ preference is still to sign Jones on a long-term deal, the same stance they had prior to training camp.
How feasible is that, though,? Let’s roll through the scenarios.
Letting Jones walk
If the Chiefs let Jones leave in free agency, they would get a third-round compensation pick provided they didn’t sign someone near equal value. However, there is an almost zero percent chance Kansas City lets Jones hit the open market.
Using one of the tags
If the Chiefs wanted to use the franchise tag, the approximate cost (the cap hasn’t been officially set yet), would be $16.27 million. For a transition tag, the number drops to $13.25 million.
What’s the difference between the tags? Jones could sign an offer sheet with another team on either, with the Chiefs getting five days to match. If they match, they keep him on those terms. If they don’t, Kansas City would get two first-round picks as compensation with a franchise tag, and nothing on a transition tag.
The window to tag a player is from Feb. 25 through March 10.
If the Chiefs go this route, they have options.
Kansas City would have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term pact with Jones. If the two sides don’t agree by then, Jones can only play on the tag whether with the Chiefs or any other franchise — think Jadeveon Clowney this year.
The Chiefs could decide to have a motivated Jones essentially on a one-year deal. After the season, Kansas City would have the ability to assess whether a second tag is financially viable. If so, general manager Brett Veach could tag at 120 percent of his 2020 salary with the intent to negotiate or deal Jones for draft capital.
Of course, the Chiefs could also tag and trade Jones this year, likely before the draft. Veach went this route last offseason, tagging outside linebacker Dee Ford before dealing him to the San Francisco 49ers for a second-round pick.
Jones is a better, younger player than Ford without the injury history. He would likely fetch at least a first-round choice.
Sign Jones to a long-term deal
The Chiefs are in a tough financial spot, but they could sign Jones.
Last summer, Jones’ representation and Veach talked about a lengthy contract, only to have talks fizzle prior to training camp. As reported by FanSided in July, the Chiefs wanted to extend Jones but have the extension kick in after the 2019 campaign. Meanwhile, Jones’ agent wanted to rip up the final year of his client’s rookie contract, theoretically getting Jones to his third contract a year earlier.
Per a league source at the time, Jones was seeking a deal similar in value to teammate Frank Clark’s, who signed a five-year, $105 million with $63.5 million guaranteed. The Chiefs were unwilling to go there, stuck closer to $42 million guaranteed over the new deal’s first three years. The math was simple for Kansas City. Jones’ 2019 salary plus two tags? Around $42 million. The gulf was too wide to bridge.
In short, Clark had ample leverage. He was on the franchise tag after being acquired via trade from the Seattle Seahawks. Jones had little leverage, still playing out his cheap rookie deal.
The breakdown in talks weren’t about Jones’ value, but rather when the deal would start. That hurdle is now gone.
What the Chiefs can do with their money
Looking at Kansas City’s cap situation, it can release wide receiver Sammy Watkins and linebacker Damien Wilson, clearing out $18.5 million in space. Combined with rollover money and already existing room, that’s enough cash for Veach to tag Jones, re-sign a few other pending free agents and extend Patrick Mahomes.
Speaking of Mahomes, the 24-year-old quarterback is likely to soon be the highest-paid player in the league. This is another important factor to consider.
Let’s play GM for a moment and do the following to the Chiefs’ roster:
- Cut Sammy Watkins
- Cut Damien Wilson
- Cut Cam Erving
- Extend Patrick Mahomes on a five-year, $200 million deal
- Use franchise tag on Chris Jones
- Allow $10 million for free agents and draft picks
- Keep $2 million in emergency space
Using the Jared Goff and Carson Wentz extension structures as a template, Mahomes’ cap hit would approximately be $11 million this season. Factor in Jones’ tag and the $12 million outlined above, and Kansas City is laying out $35 million.
The Chiefs could do it. But while it’s palatable for 2020, what about 2021 and beyond?
If Kansas City gave Mahomes the aforementioned extension, his cap number would be enormous in 2021, potentially the full $40 million figure. If the Chiefs also signed Jones to Clark’s exact deal, the cap number would be $22.7 million in 2021.
If we account for a slight rise in the NFL salary cap both this year and next, it’ll be around $210 million. Under these parameters, Kansas City would be looking at the following cap hits in 2021:
- Patrick Mahomes ($40M)
- Frank Clark ($24.2M)
- Chris Jones ($22.7)
- Tyrann Mathieu ($19.7M)
- Tyreek Hill ($15.7M)
In total, the top five players on the Chiefs would be earning $122.3 million, or 58 percent of the salary cap.
Going into this offseason with a projected $200 million salary cap, only one team is currently allocating more than 50 percent to their top five players: the Los Angeles Rams at 54 percent.
Kansas City can always create cap space with extensions and releases, but tying up such a large chunk of money in five players is dangerous. The Chiefs would be largely unable to sign any other meaningful free agents for a few years — including their own — while being completely reliant on the draft to restock departing talent.
In his three years at the helm, Veach has proven to believe in acquiring top-shelf talent and filling in around them with low-cost, high-upside veteran deals (see: Damien Williams, Stefen Wisniewski, Mike Pennel) and rookie deals.
Jones certainly fits Veach’s profile. The question is if he fits into Kansas City’s payroll.