From preseason No. 1 to unranked: Where did it all go wrong for Michigan State?

The Michigan State Spartans were the preseason No. 1, but are now unranked so the question becomes where did it all go wrong for Tom Izzo’s squad?

From preseason No. 1 to unranked in February, it wasn’t supposed to go like this for Michigan State basketball and Tom Izzo in a season that is slowly slipping away.

Entering the season, the world looked to be Michigan State’s oyster. Fresh off a trip to the Final Four and retaining pretty much their entire roster, the Spartans were a consensus pick as the preseason No. 1.

Unfortunately for Izzo’s squad, this season has been a nightmare, with the Spartans falling out of AP Poll this week. Michigan State is the first preseason No. 1 to fall out of the polls since Kentucky in the 2013-2014 season.

One of the biggest problems the Spartans had is they have never had the complete team they thought they were getting at the beginning of the season.

Senior guard Joshua Langford, who missed most of last season with a foot injury and is Michigan State’s top perimeter threat, didn’t play a single game after another injury to his left foot required surgery.

The loss of Langford has hurt the Spartans’ depth at shooting guard, forcing freshman Rocket Watts to assume more of a role than initially anticipated. Michigan State knocks down only 34.5 percent of their 3-point attempts, which puts them in a tie for 115th in the country. It is also nearly four percent worse from their 3-point percentage a year ago when the Spartans knocked down 38.3 percent of their 3-point attempts.

Much of the downturn in efficiency can be attributed to the absence of Langford, who would fill the shoes of Matt McQuaid, who knocked down 42.5 percent from beyond-the-arc in his senior season.

Teams can win without being elite from the perimeter if they can dominate inside the paint, which is something Michigan State usually excels at but is also not the case this season.

The Spartans do have a quality big man in Xavier Tillman, who averages a double-double, but they haven’t gotten nearly enough production inside from either Aaron Henry or Gabe Brown. The latter have taken turns as small ball fours despite functioning better as three’s in the offense. The bigger issue down low has been a disappointing year from sophomore Marcus Bingham Jr, who is averaging just over four points and four rebounds per game.

Bingham was expected to step up after the Spartans’ other major low post threat, Nick Ward, opted to turn pro after his junior season. That hasn’t happened and opposing teams can look to collapse on Tillman when he gets the ball in the paint and try to force him to kick the ball out to a below-average group of shooters.

The second contributing factor that has killed the Spartans is turnovers.

Michigan State averages 12.5 turnovers per game, which is an improvement from last season, but the mistakes are harder to overcome when the roster around Tillman and Cassius Winston isn’t nearly as talented as last year’s team.

The loss of Ward, McQuaid, Langford and Kenny Goins has left the Spartans with a collection of players who aren’t nearly as good as the team that made a Final Four run last season.

Winston is still an elite point guard but his assist numbers have dipped from 7.5 per game a year ago to 5.9 per game this season, a sign he doesn’t have much of a supporting cast to work with.

The ironic factor in all of this is if you look at the underlying numbers, Michigan State should be a lot better than it is. The Spartans are below average in some areas but not particularly terrible at anything with the nation’s fifth-best assist rate. This shows they do know how to run their offense properly.

According to ESPN’s BPI Index, which measures how a team should perform going forward based on how many points above or below average the team is, Michigan State should be the fourth-best team in the country. The Spartans are higher in the BPI than top-ranked Baylor, undefeated San Diego State and ACC leaders Louisville but their record is by far the worst of any team inside the BPI top-10.

If the BPI is to be believed, the Spartans are underachieving compared to their overall ability and that would mean it would be foolish to count Michigan State out now.

Few coaches in America are better in the NCAA Tournament than Izzo and even though Michigan State is struggling now, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Spartans make another deep run in March.

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