Mikey Garcia vs. Jessie Vargas: Betting guide and fight odds

Mikey Garcia and Jessie Vargas meet in a pinnacle bout at the welterweight division. Both need a victory badly. Here’s who’s the odds on favorite.

Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury 2 made the world pay attention to boxing. The weekend after on Saturday, Feb. 29, Mikey Garcia and Jessie Vargas meet in a high-profile welterweight bout that could keep the thrills coming.

Garica (39-1, 30 KOs) is coming off the first loss of his career. He dropped a unanimous decision to Errol Spence Jr. in March of 2019. Garcia won his first title as a featherweight in 2010. He lacks the size of most welterweights, which was a problem against Spence.

At 5-foot-11, Vargas (29-2-2, 11 KOs) has a 5-inch height advantage over Garcia. He also has a 3-inch reach advantage. Garcia might have problems getting inside of Vargas’s reach as he did with Spence. However, Vargas lacks the skillset and athleticism that Spence possesses.

According to the Sportsbook Review, most betting brokerages have Garcia holding steady as the favorite at anywhere from -440 to -550 odds. Vargas is the underdog hovering around 3-1 odds despite his edge in size.

The two losses on Vargas’s record came against the likes of Timothy Bradley Jr. and Manny Pacquiao by unanimous decision. The loss to Pacquiao came in 2016 and was fairly one-sided. Both Vargas and Garcia have lost to elite fighters, which shouldn’t be held against them.

Vargas also has two draws, but they were close fights that could have been judged in his favor. Both have experience against top-tier opposition.

Garcia and Vargas have good chins and have never been knocked out. Both have hit the canvas on at least one occasion, but have gotten up to fight to the end every time. Vargas has been cut badly in the past and is more prone to lacerations during fights, which could play a role.

The safe bet is on Garcia for a decision victory. Even though Vargas is the bigger boxer, Garcia is more skilled. He has the faster, more accurate hands and better defensive skills. Vargas likes to mix things up and engage in action brawls at times, but Garcia stays disciplined.

Vargas is inconsistent with his action in the ring. He tends to fight in spurts. Vargas can win several rounds in a row and then suddenly lose his momentum. That trend played out in both of his draws against Adrien Broner and Thomas Dulorme.

Welterweight is not the best division for Garcia. His lone welterweight bout was his last loss to Spence, and he looked too small for the division. He’s better suited as a super lightweight, but his boxing I.Q. and natural ability will allow him to outbox the larger Vargas. The oddsmakers have this bout calculated correctly.

Garcia vs. Vargas can be seen on Saturday, Feb. 29 on DAZN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.