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Fantasy baseball 2020 tiered starting pitcher rankings

By Bill Pivetz

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Steinbrenner Field on February 24, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Steinbrenner Field on February 24, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
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This tier of pitchers has the ability to move up to the next but have some things holding them back.

Jake Odorizzi, MIN

On the surface, Odorizzi improved last season. He posted a 3.51 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 (career high) and a 15-7 record. However, Odorizzi allowed a lot of hard and medium contact along with a 4.33 xFIP. He doesn’t pitch deep into games, so those owners that use quality starts should look elsewhere. He’ll make a great pick in the 14th round.

Sean Manaea, OAK

Manaea missed the first five months of the 2019 season. He returned and put up a strong September. In five starts, Manaea had a 1.21 ERA, 0.775 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. He is coming off of shoulder surgery so I don’t expect the A’s to let him pitch deep into games. That and the improved AL West should have you looking in another direction. He’s someone to monitor for next season.

Luke Weaver, ARI

Weaver had three mediocre seasons with the Cardinals. In his first season with the Diamondbacks, albeit in just 12 starts, he posted a 2.94 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. His season was shortened due to forearm tightness and the decision to rehab it instead of getting surgery could hurt his projections this season. I expect and innings limit, which won’t yield high-upside production.

Andrew Heaney, LAA

Heaney has a lot of potential but just hasn’t been able to make a full season out of it. His ratios were good in 2018 but he didn’t have the strikeouts. Heaney improved his strikeout rate but his ratios regressed. Injuries have also had their affect on Heaney throughout his career. If you’re looking for a breakout player, he’s your guy but also know when it’s time to cut him.

Jesus Luzardo, OAK

Luzardo was expected to be a top breakout player last season but injuries limited him to just 12.0 innings as a reliever. As we enter the 2020 season, the handcuffs are apparently off and Luzardo is going to go ham. He doesn’t induce a lot of contact and with a high strikeout rate, fantasy owners are going to see his ADP rise as we get closer to Opening Day.

Julio Urias, LAD

With Hyun-Jin Ryu in Toronto and Kenta Maeda in Minnesota, Urias finally has a spot in the Dodgers rotation. Urias’ ability to get swings-and-misses is not the issue. He had a good strikeout rate throughout the minors. His walk rate, however, could use some improvement. Urias pitches in a good division with some pitcher-friendly parks to help his ratios. If you have a solid rotation, Urias is a solid pick for the upside.

German Marquez, COL

Marquez had a great 2018 despite falling victim to Coors Field. He had 230 strike outs with a 3.77 ERA and 1.204 WHIP. He improved his home ERA but every other stat went the wrong direction. He finished with a 4.76 ERA, 1.201 WHIP and 175 strikeouts. Surprisingly, his batted ball stats were nearly identical. There was a five percent increase to his HR/FB rate. If you draft Marquez, you may not want to start him at home.

Kenta Maeda, MIN

Maeda, unlike his former teammate on the next slide, will benefit from joining the American League. While his ERA hasn’t been great, career 3.87 ERA, Maeda’s underlying numbers looked good. He posted a 14.6 swinging strike rate, 34.8 chase rate, both career highs. In order for Maeda to improve, he will need to get his HR/FB rate back to around 10 percent.

Robbie Ray, ARI

Ray has been a consistent pitcher but not in a good way. He hasn’t pitched in more than 175 innings or maintain a WHIP below 1.33. Pitching in Chase Field with the humidor would help any other pitcher but not Ray. He’s almost a lock for 200 strikeouts but expect an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.32. If you start him, don’t be too excited to watch him pitch.

Mike Minor, TEX

Minor reached 200 innings for the first time since 2013. There was nothing else impressive about Minor’s 2019 season. He posted a 3.59 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. His 4.25 FIP shows that things could have been worse. Minor is going to get drafted regardless, but I wouldn’t want to be the one who does it. His ERA is going to be over 4.00 with minimal strikeouts.

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