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Fantasy baseball 2020 tiered starting pitcher rankings

By Bill Pivetz

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Steinbrenner Field on February 24, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Steinbrenner Field on February 24, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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With a good season, these pitchers could move up to the top 20 or even top 15.

Frankie Montas, OAK

Montas was looking like the next breakout pitcher before a PED suspension cut his season short. Before that, though, he posted a 2.63 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 9-2 record. Almost half of his balls in play ended up in ground balls. With a 97 MPH fastball, a slider and split-finger fastball, Montas has good swing-and-miss stuff. He will continue to build on his 2019 but the ERA may creep closer to 3.00 than 2.00.

Lance Lynn, TEX

Lynn posted a great season at 32 years old. He finished with a 3.67 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He even saw his fastball velocity increase to 94.2 MPH, the fastest of his career. While there is potential for him to repeat that this season, looking at his track record, 2019 may be the outlier instead.

Chris Sale, BOS

Sale finished the 2019 season with an ERA over 4.00, the first time in his career. He posted a 2.3 BB/9, the highest since 2012, and a 1.086 WHIP. The good thing is that his strikeout rate was still over 10.0 K/9. He is dealing with a flexor strain in his elbow. He is likely to miss the first two months of the season. Unless your league has an IL spot, I wouldn’t draft Sale at his current ADP of 78.

Zack Wheeler, PHI

While his ratios declined, Wheeler improved on his walk and strikeout rates over a career-high 195.1 innings. He allowed harder contact last season, resulting in 22 home runs allowed. Moving from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park doesn’t help his outlook either. CBP ranked seventh in home runs last season, according to ESPN Park Factors. He isn’t the ace his second half showed but a solid SP3.

Mike Soroka, ATL

In his first full season in the Braves rotation, Soroka posted a 2.68 ERA and 1.111 WHIP. He is not a strikeout pitcher, 7.3 K/9 but also doesn’t allow a lot of free passes, 2.1 BB/9. Soroka had a ridiculous 51.2 ground ball and 25.3 fly ball rates. There will be some regression based on his 3.85 xFIP but he’s still the Braves best starting pitcher.

Corey Kluber, TEX

Kluber’s last two seasons have not been ideal for anyone. Despite pitching in 215.0 innings in 2018, his strikeout rate decreased and his contact rate increased. Things continued to get worse last season, posting a 5.81 ERA in April before suffering a broken forearm. He didn’t have a chance to correct that, so I don’t hold that against him. Moving to the AL West could help him rebound. Kluber will have a high 3.00 ERA with 12-13 wins and 180 strikeouts.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE

Carrasco’s last year has not been fun. He missed most of the season while treating his leukemia, dealt with a mild hip flexor and will begin the season on the IL with an elbow injury. If you take away a couple of starts in April, he will still be a reliable pitcher with a 3.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 170 strikeouts. The increased fly ball and HR/FB rates won’t help when facing the Twins and White Sox.

Brandon Woodruff, MIL

Woodruff looked good out of the bullpen in 2018 which helped him secure a spot in the Brewers rotation last season. He finished with a 3.62 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Losing Yasmani Grandal won’t help his strikeout projections for this season. Plus, pitching in Miller Park won’t help his batted ball profile. I don’t like him at his 90 ADP.

Sonny Gray, CIN

Leaving New York was the best thing to happen to Gray. In his first season with the Reds, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Obviously, the walk rate needs improvement but the fact he was able to limit home runs while pitching in Great American Ballpark is something to be excited for. The Reds offense is much improved, which should give Gray more than 11 wins this season. With all of the pitching injuries so far, expect his ADP to continue to rise.

Jose Berrios, MIN

Berrios reached 200 innings for the first time in his career, but didn’t make the necessary improvements to move into the next tier. His ERA, walk rate and strikeout rate dropped while his WHIP decreased. Overall, though, Berrios is a pitcher that you can start without worry and will get you wins and close to 200 strikeouts. However, I don’t think his value is worth his 75 ADP.

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