NFL Draft experts are starting to overthink Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert has a chance to develop into a quality NFL quarterback, but drafting him over Tua Tagovailoa is pure madness.

The 2020 NFL Draft is just over a week away and teams interested in spending a high pick on a quarterback are locking in their final evaluations. Amazingly, some of those teams seem to have installed Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa on their respective draft boards.

According to Mel Kiper, the Dolphins are one of those teams. His latest mock draft predicts that Herbert will go to Miami with the No. 5 overall selection. That’s a signficant departure from the conventional wisdom that the Dolphins would be Tagovailoa’s floor. In fairness to Kiper, his mocks attempt to predict that teams will do. He still has Tagovailoa rated higher than Herbert on his draft board.

The rationale for teams rating Herbert over Tagovailoa is based on health concerns about the former Alabama star. Theoretically, some teams believe he won’t be durable as an NFL starter. His injury issues at the collegiate level are an understandable concern for teams that might want to spend a top draft pick on his services.

The problem with Tagovailoa’s medicals causing his stock to drop below Herbert’s at this point in the process is that no team has received any negative medical information about Tua in recent weeks. His camp has carefully controlled that information throughout the draft process. The latest reports about his hip claim he’ll be ready for training camp. Simply put, no team has received the opportunity to downgrade Tagovailoa’s medicals.

That means that Herbert leapfrogging him on draft boards is based on two factors. First, it hinges on teams suddenly, and illogically, becoming more concerned about Tua’s medicals in the last few days. Secondly, it requires teams to become more comfortable with Herbert’s obvious weaknesses on film. For the record, Herbert has received zero opportunities to address those on the field with any team in recent weeks.

When you compare Herbert’s tape to Tagovailoa’s it’s painfully obvious who the better prospect is. Tagovailoa processes information at an elite pace and delivers the ball with accuracy and precision.

Herbert certainly puts some impressive throws on film, but he flounders around the pocket like a lost soul when pressure starts to build. When that happens, he makes some inexplicably inaccurate throws. They are just the sort of throws that get returned for touchdowns by NFL defensive backs.

Any team that believes Herbert deserves to be selected over Tagovailoa should have made that evaluation months ago. The idea that his stock has suddenly risen over Tua as the draft approaches defies all logic. Any team that takes Herbert over Tagovailoa better be certain that Tua’s career will be derailed due to injury. If not, it’s going to look like a historically bad draft choice in short order.