The Whiteboard: Amidst suspended season, Rockets somehow more in limbo than anyone

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Say what you will about Daryl Morey, Mike D’Antoni and the Houston Rockets, but they’ve never been afraid to buck convention. The Splash Brothers colonized this pace-and-space era, but the Rockets modernized the new world with their 3-point onslaught, analytics-based shot chart and simple mathematical genius that indicated yes, three is indeed worth more than two.

The NBA had seen efficient isolation scorers before, but with James Harden, they cranked it up 50 notches and turned his step-back prowess into an offense unto itself. And while the Golden State Warriors — Houston’s eternal bane preventing Harden, D’Antoni and Chris Paul from winning their long-awaited first championships — discovered the potency of small-ball at its most effective, the Rockets were in the midst of pushing its bounds as far as possible this season, trading away Clint Capela, using P.J. Tucker as a full-time center and giving the lion’s share of the minutes to anyone 6-foot-8 and under.

The Rockets weren’t always the Model T Ford, but rather, the Little Willie tank that pushed each new concept to maximum capacity, bulldozing traditional thinking and blasting its way through to victory.

Like most tanks used in warfare, however, the Rockets have always eventually blown up in spectacular fashion. Whether that’s due to the system, the superstar leading each new revolution, the general on the sidelines or the enemy on the other side is up for debate. Whatever the case, it appears Houston is growing tired of reinventing itself year after year, only to fall short of the Finals and that first title since 1995.

Before the season was suspended in mid-March, the Rockets’ latest gambit was already running out of steam. Harden’s month-long skid was a main culprit, but Tucker and the other small-ballers looked gassed too. The circumstances surrounding this league’s suspended season were obviously unfortunate and much larger than basketball, but there’s no question an extended hiatus benefitted a team like Houston more than anyone: It gave this outfit time to catch its breath, setting everyone else back to equal footing whenever the season resumes.

The Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers looked like unassailable title favorites, but now the door has been cracked open ever so slightly. No matter how organized the league’s return plan is, it will still be highly unconventional for the players to adapt to on the fly. A productive training camp, followed by a one- or two-month hot streak with well-rested players in potentially shortened playoff series opens the door for upsets.

In a seven-game NBA series, the better team wins nine out of 10 times. If we actually get playoffs this year, they could feel more like March Madness.

That volatile backdrop creates opportunities for a team like the Rockets, but it also leaves them more vulnerable to drastic offseason changes than most. After Houston was unable to reach an extension with its head coach before the start of the season, it felt like this might be D’Antoni’s last ride. That became doubly true when the team dove headfirst into this boom-or-bust small-ball strategy at the trade deadline, and the latest reports — which keep mentioning Jeff Van Gundy and Tom Thibodeau as potential successors — indicate that barring a championship, whatever basketball is left in 2019-20 will be the end of the line for D’Antoni.

And of course, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Harden has proven himself as the greatest Rocket since Hakeem Olajuwon, but at some point, bashing his head on the same playoff ceiling — especially after summer after summer of rebranding the supporting cast — will get old. The Russell Westbrook trade was looking like a disaster until he ignited over the last few months, but even then, his improved play came when Harden started stinking up the joint.

The Rockets have Harden, Westbrook, Tucker, Robert Covington and Eric Gordon locked in for at least next season, but they have limited cap room to fill out the bench with the Beard and Brodie making a combined $82 million next year. If this small-ball group flames out, more drastic steps may need to be taken for a general manager like Morey who is constantly trying to evolve his roster.

Trading a perennial MVP candidate and certified superstar like Harden would be foolish, but Westbrook and everyone else should certainly be under consideration, and therein lies the difficulty for a man who’s used to making hasty decisions and trying to stay ahead of the curve. With such small sample sizes, both before and after the hiatus, it’ll be awfully hard to quantify how successful this group could be together under normal circumstances. The early returns were terrific, then the experiment fizzled out, and then the entire season was suspended indefinitely by a global pandemic.

The Rockets were already streaking towards pivotal decisions in the coming offseason, from D’Antoni’s future to evaluating last summer’s risky Westbrook trade to the revolutionary small-ball experiment. This extended hiatus gives the front office time to mull those decisions, but if the Van Gundy rumors are any indication, change is coming yet again in Houston, and only a streaky run to a championship can stop it.

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