Fantasy Football: How much will Dak Prescott’s value regress?

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Dak Prescott is coming off a monster fantasy football season. Recreating that will be impossible, but how far will he regress as a fantasy player this year?

2019 was the best year of Dak Prescott‘s NFL career. Though his Dallas Cowboys didn’t reach the NFC playoffs, he threw for over 4,900 yards and 30 touchdowns. Dallas may have finished the year at a pedestrian 8-8, but Prescott was QB2 in fantasy football. He could have another great fantasy season, but he’s a clear regression candidate in 2020. How far will he fall this fall?

The Fantasy Footballers are optimistic Prescott will remain a QB1 on any fantasy team. Their issues stem from he’s not going to throw for around 4,900 yards again. Mike Wright points out starting quarterbacks who throw for that many yards in a season don’t typically recreate that, unless you’re Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints or Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions.

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The expected yardage drop-off is about 600 yards. So while Prescott will be well above the 4,000-yard threshold this upcoming season, throwing for around a projected 4,300 will have him drop a few spots in fantasy football quarterback rankings. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs won’t be missing three games again, so Prescott won’t be QB2 again anytime soon.

As for how far he’ll fall, the guys still see him as a top-10 fantasy quarterback at the very least. Prescott may be entering a new offensive system with Mike McCarthy as his head coach, but he still has former Cowboys teammate Kellen Moore as his offensive coordinator. If Prescott throws for around 4,250 yards and 25 touchdowns, you’re looking at a top-eight fantasy quarterback.

In short, you can win your fantasy football league going away with Prescott as your QB1. You might need one of the better running backs or wide receivers in the league to pair with him, but Prescott can be a top-two performer on your fantasy team and help you take home your league’s prize.

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Though an offensive change dampers Prescott’s value a tad initially, having Blake Jarwin emerge as the Cowboys’ No. 1 tight end option over Jason Witten will certainly limit how far Prescott falls in fantasy viability. To say his 2019 campaign will be a fantasy outlier is a bit premature, but Prescott will drop in fantasy rankings this fall, but maybe only a few spots.