5 matchups we’re looking forward to most in the NHL’s 24-team playoff
NHL playoffs: Calgary Flames vs. Winnipeg Jets
In late October, the lone meeting between the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets came in a snowy outdoor arena with 33,000 fans in attendance. Now the rematch will come in an empty arena in the middle of the summer, with immense pressure on both teams to start producing some playoff success.
The winner of this all Canadian team series will face the top seed in the Western Conference, which is currently the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues.
After being the best team in the Western Conference in last year’s regular season, the Flames have regressed significantly towards mediocrity. As a whole, there isn’t anything about the Flames that’s really good or bad once you take a look at their analytics. Just about everything about Calgary is pretty mediocre from top to bottom. The offense generates a lot of quality, but cannot finish their shots. Their defense is average, and also not getting a lot of help from their goalies. Calgary scored 210 goals and allowed 215, pretty average.
Calgary’s best players like Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Mark Giordano have all had a significant down season, with budding star Matthew Tkachuk forced to lead the way in their stead. Last season saw all four of them at their very best, and was the driving force to leading Calgary to their regular season success. If the Flames are going to make noise this postseason, their stars need to step up.
Their opponent in Winnipeg has faired about the same, but for different reasons. Two years removed from the franchise’s first deep playoff run, the Jets were gutted on defense in the offseason after departures of Jacob Trouba and Dustin Byfuglien. They were unable to properly replace them, and as a result had to ice one of the worst defenses in the league. If that wasn’t bad enough, that defense has been ravaged by injury multiple times.
Winnipeg can thank the fact that they even stayed in the playoff race at all to Connor Hellebuyck’s outstanding performance in goal, which should absolutely put him in consideration for the Hart Trophy. No goalie has faced more shots, made more saves, had more shutouts, or started more games this season than Hellebuyck, and is also second overall in goals saved above average, behind only Tuukka Rask.
Winnipeg’s strength lies in their offense. Loaded with high end talent like Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler, and Nikolaj Ehlers, the Jets have built a feared offensive core with a solid supporting cast underneath them. When they’re at their best, it can be one of the best in the league. However their 216 goals this season is middle of the pack, and can be explained by their absurdly low expected goals rate on Charting Hockey. They need to generate more chances if they’re going to bet on their offense like this. Hellebuyck can only do so much for this team.
With these two teams separated by .001 in points percentage, this is perhaps the hardest matchup to call in the play-in round. The offseason implications for the loser of this series could be staggering. There is too much talent on both sides to fail to qualify for the playoffs, even in this scenario. Can Calgary’s star players rise to the occasion and push the Flames to another level, or can the Jets ride their offense and goaltending back to postseason?