Blue Jays need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be the star he’s supposed to be

Blue Jays will go only as far as Vlad Jr’s development takes them

Did Vladimir Guerrero Jr. live up to his colossal expectations in his rookie season, or did he fail to match all the hype preceding his debut? That’s what the Toronto Blue Jays hope to find out in the abbreviated 2020 season.

Guerrero was the No. 1 prospect in baseball when he was called up to the big leagues last season on April 26. His impending introduction generated tons of fanfare and expectations; nearly 29,000 saw his debut against the Oakland Athletics on a Friday night at the Rogers Centre, 12,000 more than attended the Blue Jays previous Friday-night home game.

In some ways, he turned out to be the player he was expected to be. Guerrero had four of the top-25 hardest-hit balls in the league last season. Only Aaron Judge had as many. His Home Run Derby performance was electrifying as he sent 91 balls out of Progressive Field in Cleveland before falling to fellow rookie Pete Alonso in the finals. In 42 games immediately after that performance, he hit .325 (20th in the Majors) with 18 extra-base hits and a .926 OPS. In August he trailed only Yordan Alvarez, Bryan Reynolds, and Will Smith in OPS among rookies, and was behind only Reynolds in batting average.

Yet his rookie season was also a disappointment. The power he showed in the derby never translated to games; he hit just 15 all season, none over his final 27 games. He struck out in nearly 20 percent of his at-bats after drawing more walks than strikeouts in the minors. His walk rate fell from 11 percent in the minors to eight percent. At the end of the season, it was teammate Bo Bichette who ranked in the top-five among rookies in OPS, not Guerrero. His work at third base showed he needs major improvement; Guerrero was tied for the worst infielder in outs above average with the Twins’ Jorge Polanco.\

Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr blossom into the star Toronto needs?

For all his struggles, though, Guerrero is still just 21 and learning how to be a Major Leaguer. He admitted near the end of the season that he had never really worked out or lifted weights before, that his strength just came naturally to him. His conditioning was a concern as he seemed to falter late in the season.

So Guerrero and his team set out to change that in the offseason. He adopted an extensive workout regimen at home in the Dominican Republic. His family posted videos of him pushing sleds, skipping rope, flipping tires, and taking mighty swings in batting practice. All of it was done to ensure he could withstand the rigors of a full season in the big leagues. The results in the spring were promising, as he hit three home runs in 28 at-bats before play was halted.

The Blue Jays organization pushed him to work harder, knowing the future of the franchise lies with him. “We’re being very clear. He knows he has to come in in overall better condition and he has a plan to do that,’ General Manager Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith at the end of the year. “He is committed to it. We have helped him construct it. It’s really clear. It’s a very clear plan that if he executes—and if we execute, we’ll be accountable for that as well, if we can do that together—he’ll be at a much better place.”

The Blue Jays need Guerrero to be more like the July-August version of himself than he was in the other parts of the season. In a 60-game season, the Blue Jays will play half of their games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, in addition to potentially 15 games against the Nationals, Braves, Mets, and Phillies. That’s 45 of 60 games against clubs that combined to have a .564 winning percentage last season.

A shortened season will work to Guerrero’s advantage. He won’t have to worry about staying in shape for 162 games and burning out near the end. The Blue Jays upgraded their rotation with the addition of Hyun-Jin Ryu and veterans Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson. Matt Shoemaker will be making his return after knee surgery. And top prospect Nate Pearson will likely join the pitching staff at some point. But it’s Guerrero who will shape how they perform this season.

He joins Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel in forming one of the best, young lineups in baseball. Guerrero is the key part of that foursome; if he plays like he’s expected to, the Blue Jays can be playoff contenders in 2020 and beyond.