Fantasy football: Should you draft a QB early or later in the draft?
By Ben Grivas
The Early Round QB
The big two early round quarterbacks are the men, the myths, the legends Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. The data from the past three years shows that the first two quarterbacks taken have a high floor, but usually don’t actually finish as the top options. This might dissuade you from picking Jackson and Mahomes, but I would actually argue against the trend in this case.
These guys aren’t the average top two quarterbacks. They’re outliers. Look back at that second graph to see what their peak looks like. Nobody is even close. The positional advantage that peak Mahomes and peak Jackson give you actually validate an early round pick.
The issue with an early QB approach is the opportunity cost at their ADP. Jackson and Mahomes are currently 14th and 15th overall in half-PPR leagues. I’m willing to fight the trend for these special talents, but not for the insanity of passing up on Julio Jones, Travis Kelce, Kenyan Drake, and more. ECR has them at 25th and 27th overall, which is much more fair for their value. If you take a quarterback in the early second round and he doesn’t post a historic season, you have hurt your team.