Fantasy football: Should you draft a TE early, middle, or late?
By Ben Grivas
The Early Round Tight End
Every tight end taken in the first four rounds from the data sample finished as a top-9 option. Those who aren’t named Gronk finished top-5 every time. The TE1 has come from this range all four years. That TE1 all 4 years was Travis Kelce. If Kelce were listed as a wide receiver, he would have been a WR1 each of the past three seasons. The other tight end being drafted near him, George Kittle, equaled him in PPG last year. Kittle’s 2018 season was actually slightly better than his 2019.
These early round tight ends have proven to be a worthy investments compared to the competition at the position. However, it’s hard to actually draft one knowing that your other positions will be weaker. Are these early tight ends a good pick at their ADP?
I would argue that they are definitely good picks. Kelce and Kittle are currently ADP 20 and 22, behind 13 running backs are 6 wide receivers. Due to positional scarcity and having two spots in the fantasy lineup, running back deserves this early attention. In both my projections and those from FantasyPros, the wide receivers taken early are all projected to outscore Kelce and Kittle, but the next tier’s players aren’t. With a consistent hit rate and a massive advantage over other players at the position, the early round tight end is a good strategy. There’s much more depth at wide receiver to make it up later, so taking two running backs and a tight end in the first three rounds is a solid plan.
As for fourth round tight ends Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews, trends support them, but not as much as Kelce and Kittle. The three fourth round tight ends have recently finished 2nd, 2nd, and 1st among tight ends in points per game. However, the fourth tight end drafted has completely busted the past two years (Jimmy Graham and O.J. Howard). With the possibility of a bust and the abundance of wide receiver talent going in the 4th round, I’m less likely to draft these two. I would take them if they fall in the draft, not at their ADPs of 40 and 42.