Fantasy football: Should you draft a TE early, middle, or late?

The Late Round Tight End

Look, I get it. You want depth at RB and WR at all costs and you feel confident that the tight end position hardly matters since most teams don’t have a Kelce or a Kittle to beat you with. Plus, you think you have a sleeper with big-time upside. This idea isn’t the worst idea in the world, it’s really not that bad, but there are problems with it.

Streaming tight ends is tough. If you miss out on the year’s top waiver wire pick up like Darren Waller, you’re left with ten options that are all touchdown-dependent. A good matchup is no guarantee that your pickup will get targets. He hasn’t so far this year; that’s why he’s on the waiver wire. You might end up starting a quarter of the league’s tight ends by the end of the year because there aren’t any reliable options.

Only 3 of the 19 tight ends drafted in rounds 9-13 scored over 12 PPG. That’s a 15.8% chance that your sleeper becomes a quality tight end. If you go with the late round TE strategy, don’t do it with the expectation that Noah Fant or Mike Gesicki to pan out too well. Not to say that it’s a bad strategy; I’ve seen many teams have success without a good tight end. Just make sure that you’re very confident that your running backs and wide receivers are good enough to overcome a deficit at the tight end position.

If you wait to draft a tight end, I recommend Hayden Hurst, who should get a sizable chunk of Austin Hooper’s 7.46 targets per game last year in a pass-heavy Falcons offense. If you miss on Hurst, draft two flyers and hope one hits. Drop the other in the first few weeks of the season.

Conclusions

1. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are extremely reliable, as good as WR1s, and give not just a scoring advantage at the position, but also security at the position. No waiver wire tight ends. They are absolutely worth second round picks.
2. Middle round tight ends should score more than in the past do to more options at the position, but they still carry a very high historical bust rate.
3. Late round tight ends will likely leave you scrounging the waiver wire all season, but you don’t necessarily need a good tight end to have a championship team if you can make up the deficit at other positions.

That’s all for tight end strategy today. Click here for QB strategy, here and here for WR rankings, and here for RB rankings. Thanks for reading!