DraftKings MLB Picks July 25: I Minored in Darvish

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CHICAGO – JULY 20: Yu Darvish of the Chicago Cubs pitches during an exhibition game against the Chicago White Sox on July 20, 2020 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Yu Darvish ($10,500): Darvish is expensive, and while his tenure with the Cubs has been up and down, he has absolutely dominated the Brewers. He allowed just one run to them over two starts last year. Overall, Milwaukee is just 19-98(.194) with two homers, three RBI, and 33 strikeouts against Darvish. I don’t like to invest this much in someone who runs up pitch counts, but his dominance of the Brewers has me considering it.

Mike Minor ($9,000): I normally didn’t use Minor at home last year despite his strong season. His ERA was almost a run and a half higher. However, Texas has a new ballpark that seems to play differently than the old one. And it faces the other direction. Oh, and the Rockies are a much worse hitting team on the road. On top of that, Minor has only allowed eight hits in 58 at bats to current Rockies for a robust .138 average. They have a few runs off of him, but not enough to scare me off.

Matt Shoemaker ($8,300): Hey, remember Shoemaker’s dominant April before his tore his ACL last year? Most others don’t either, but he was the best pitcher of the first five starts last year. He looked strong in the summer camp and could start fast again. After all, the Rays are just 4-36(.111) lifetime against him with one run and nine strikeouts. It’s a small sample size, but Shoemaker deserves the benefit of the doubt right now.

Middle Tier:

Julio Urias ($7,600): We quickly forget just how dominant Urias was in his rookie year. He was no slouch as a starter last year either. Urias averages more than a strikeout per inning, even as a starter, and has a 3.18 career ERA. The Giants are not a team of good hitters eight. They are 6-27 against Urias with no runs and nine strikeouts. That’s a small sample size, but I believe in Urias a hell of a lot more than I do the Giants.

Ryan Yarbrough ($7,300): Yarbrough posted a 2.18 ERA in 20.2 innings against the Blue Jays last year in five long relief appearances, beating them three times. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, but much like Hendricks last night, he’s an efficient pitcher. The only thing that has me nervous here is his struggles at the Trop last year. Yarbrough had a 5.28 ERA in 59.2 home innings last year.

Steven Matz ($7,200): Some will take one look at the BvP stats and run. Hell, just look at the stats on Matz from last year. They aren’t that good. So why am I using him, especially against a team like the Braves? Matz had a brilliant 2.31 ERA at home last year compared to 6.62 on the road. Not only that, but he dominated the Braves to the tune of 26.7 DraftKings points in his last start of last year, also at CitiField. Much like Hendricks yesterday, Matz is always in play at home.

Bargain Tier:

Caleb Smith ($6,900): Smith wasn’t the same pitcher after injury last year. Many will be off of him because the Phillies lit him up in his last start of last season. However, his overall numbers against the Phillies aren’t terrible. Smith was 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a strikeout per inning against Philly last year. They hit just .171 off of him. There’s enough upside, especially with what Alcantara did to the Phillies last night.

Martin Perez ($5,500): This price against Baltimore is so very tempting. The Orioles do hit lefties fairly well, but almost all of the damage done to Perez by this team has been by one guy. That’s not enough for me to fade this. I’ll have some shares of Perez because he should be at least $8k just for facing the Orioles. This is too cheap no matter how you look at it.