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DraftKings MLB picks July 28: And Justus for all

By Mike Marteny

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JULY 16: Justus Sheffield #33 of the Seattle Mariners pitches in the first inning during a summer workouts intrasquad game at T-Mobile Park on July 16, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JULY 16: Justus Sheffield #33 of the Seattle Mariners pitches in the first inning during a summer workouts intrasquad game at T-Mobile Park on July 16, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /
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DraftKings MLB
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 03: Walker Buehler #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Washington Nationals during Game 1 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, October 3, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Walker Buehler ($11,300): Buehler is by far the most talented pitcher on the slate, but he is also facing a dangerous offense. Buehler’s ERA was more than a run higher on the road last year, but I’m not really scared of the opposing pitcher. From a talent standpoint, no one comes close to Buehler. I think you have to use him in cash games, but for GPP, I’m fine with the fade. I’m under the impression that no pitcher will truly be worth the price today.

Merrill Kelly ($10,000): We are to the point of the season where a guy with a 4.42 ERA last year has a five-figure price tag. The season isn’t even a week old. The only thing that has me considering Kelly is that he was strong early on last year and this Texas park truly plays like a pitcher’s park so far. He’s a risk, but it might be a risk worth taking.

Middle Tier:

Carlos Martinez ($8,800): I hate using pitchers against the Twins, but the Cardinals have absolutely destroyed Bailey and Martinez rediscovered his arsenal in relief last year. I think he’ll give up a few runs, but Martinez is one of the few likely to go five innings and has a better shot at a win than most. That ranks him pretty high on this slate of awful pitching.

Justus Sheffield ($8,200): We’ve been hearing about his elite stuff for a few years now. It hasn’t shown in the majors yet. That could change. Sheffield was dominant in the Spring restart, showing huge strikeout upside. He seems to be figuring things out. I could see Sheffield having the best strikeout upside on the entire slate against the Angels tonight. He’s the one pitcher that may be a bargain at his price. The Angels scored just 11 runs in the entire four game series against the A’s to open the season.

Zach Davies ($8,000): Davies pitched against the Giants twice last year while with the Brewers. He notched a 2.46 ERA in those starts. Davies doesn’t get much for strikeouts, but he may be the safest option on the entire slate. I will have a lot of Davies in cash lineups. He’s nothing special, but if you are looking for an island of reality in an ocean of chaos, that’s Davies.

Bargain Tier:

Josh Lindblom ($5,100): How feisty are you? Lindblom, who last pitched in the majors with the Pirates in 2017, gets to redebut in the majors against them three years later. Lindblom was the KBO MVP last season and his major league ERA was 4.10 over 147 innings. It’s not like he was terrible. This is an interesting leverage spot, but like almost every pitcher last night, it could blow up on us.

Matt Hall ($4,900): Hall looked good in the summer against a lineup that hits lefties pretty well. He’s going to give up some runs, but Hall has enough strikeouts to mitigate damage and could get a win if he lasts five innings. That has been a big if for any pitcher though.

Anthony Castro ($4,000): There are some expensive bats out there tonight and most are worth it. Pitching is mostly a disaster again, so I’m trying to find guys that wont lose me points. Castro has never pitched above AA, but he has some solid minor league numbers and the league doesn’t know much about him. He’s worth a GPP dart.