Fantasy Football draft steal alert: Reach for DeVante Parker

But what about Preston Williams? Or Mike Gesicki? Both should breakout in 2020…right?

Head coach Brian Flores has already said that Preston Williams is cleared for football activity after tearing his ACL last November. However, the Miami Herald later reported the following:

"The Dolphins have been easing back receiver Preston Williams from last November’s torn ACL, and a team source said there’s no assurance he will be deemed ready for Week 1…"

So there’s no guarantee that Williams will be ready for the opener, and there’s always the question on how he will perform after suffering such a traumatic injury. But even if we assume he will be ready to go and will pick up right where he left off, Parker will still have ample opportunities to thrive.

Williams had 60 total targets in 8 games in 2019. Assuming a similar target share extrapolated for a full healthy season, he should receive ~60 more targets in 2020.

We can also assume that tight end Mike Gesicki’s potential breakout will require more targets as well. However, he already saw 89 targets in 2019, which made him the 7th most targeted tight end. For the purposes of this exercise, we will add an extra ~11 passes to round him up to 100 total targets in 2020, which would have put him in the top 5 among TE royalty.

So where will these targets come from? Well, the public perception that attributes to Parker’s declining ADP is that he will be the sole benefactor that gives up targets to both teammates. But as fate would have it, this will not be the case in 2020.

Fellow Miami wide receivers Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson are both opting out this year due to the ongoing pandemic. They leave behind 48 and 62 targets, respectively, totaling 110 unaccounted targets. This is more than enough to satisfy both Williams and Gesicki, leaving extra targets to spare for Parker to gobble up.

Also, despite trading away Kenny Stills to the Houston Texans last season, the Dolphins’ neglected to draft a replacement receiver in a stacked 2020 NFL draft. So with no other competition, instead of losing targets, it’s possible that Parker ends up with even more.

Lastly, Miami’s run game has improved greatly, upgrading from the mediocre likes of Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird to the “thunder and lightning” tandem of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida – the latter being the league’s fastest player last year. A respected run game should help take away coverage from Parker, opening him up to even more breakaway plays.

Conclusion:

DeVante Parker’s current ADP is #61 (ECR #51), which is the WR20 on Yahoo or WR28 on ESPN. However, in mock drafts he has been sliding even further with an ADP of #72. That is an absurd 7th-round discount for someone who has all signs pointing to another blowout year as a fantasy WR1. Don’t let the naysayers scare you; draft DeVante Parker and enjoy one of 2020’s biggest steals.