NBA DFS picks August 22: How many of the big three do we need to succeed?

NBA DFS guard plays

Houston must be doing something right. They have a 2-0 series lead. That is despite Harden being nowhere close to value in either game. Harden can and will take the game over if he needs to, but I’m not going to pay the giant premium, especially on DraftKings, to find out. Chances are he wont.

While we’re at it, we can go ahead and add Lillard and King James to guys I wont be paying for. Portland got blown off the floor last game. I would say that wont happen again. After all, the Lakers role players wont explode like they did in Game 2. I still wont pay for Lillard or CJ though. The Lakers guard defense has locked both of them down.

Jimmy Butler is one of the finer plays for the price, but I’m relegating him to cash game duty only. Butler doesn’t have a ton of upside on a team as deep as the Heat. Butler will consistently get you between 35-45 points, but he likely wont top that number. That limits his true value, especially when there are a few guys cheaper than him that have a higher ceiling.

Game 1 it was Chris Paul who kept the Thunder in it. Game 2 was SGA. Who will it be in Game 3? Likely one of those two, but good luck deciphering which one. I don’t think the Thunder get swept, so I’m not totally off of their guards. Dennis Schroder is the safe pick based on price. If you want upside, lean towards SGA. He’s especially nice on FanDuel since SG is weak if you don’t pay the price for Harden.

At some point the Heat are going to piss in our Cheerios and throw Kendrick Nunn back in the mix. It’s inexplicable that someone who was a key to the team’s success throughout the season has yet to make his playoff debut. That makes me nervous about using Goran Dragic. Dragic is still underpriced on DraftKings, but not if Nunn steals 30 minutes. I’d rather play the Malcolm Brogdon side on this game. Even with Oladipo back, Brogdon was the driving force of the Pacers.

Eric Gordon has the exact same fantasy points in each of the first two games of this series. How’s that for cheap value? I’m riding Gordon again instead of riding the Duncan Robinson roller coaster. Robinson has more upside but remember what I said about Nunn.

Speaking of Nunn, Markelle Fultz is still cheaper than him. Veteran DJ Augustin hurts his upside, but I’m not digging any deeper than Fultz for value at guard on DraftKIngs today. I’d be shocked if Connaughton has half of his game 2 output.

The only way I’ll dig deeper is if Rajon Rondo returns. His price is low enough that even 20 minutes of Rondo is plenty to hit value on both sites.