Odds suggest Trey Lance won’t transfer to Kansas State, though he should

Trey Lance is not likely to transfer to the Kansas State Wildcats in 2020.

If Trey Lance transferred to the Kansas State Wildcats, that would be sweet, but don’t count on it.

Lance won the Walter Payton Award (Best player) and the Jerry Rice Award (Best freshman) for the FCS powerhouse North Dakota State Bison in 2019. He was so utterly dominant last year that he didn’t throw an interception during his redshirt freshman season. With Carson Wentz having success in the NFL, Lance is getting serious first-round consideration in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Unfortunately, North Dakota State won’t play college football this fall due to COVID-19. With only one year’s worth of starts at the FCS level, that could be to the detriment of Lance’s first-round draft grade. He is projected to be the third quarterback taken next spring after Trevor Lawrence of the Clemson Tigers and Justin Fields of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Will Lance consider transferring?

Trey Lance to Kansas State makes sense, but oddsmakers aren’t buying it.

If Lance were to transfer, the most likely spot for him would have to be Kansas State in the Big 12. His former college coach Chris Klieman leads the Wildcats these days. Not expected to do much this fall, K-State is in need of some much-needed spark offensively. However, SportsBetting.ag doesn’t think highly of Kansas State this year because Lance isn’t expected to transfer there.

2020 Big 12 Conference Championship odds

• Oklahoma Sooners: -125
• Texas Longhorns: +140
• Oklahoma State Cowboys: +750
• Iowa State Cyclones: +1200
• TCU Horned Frogs: +2000
• Baylor Bears: +2500
• West Virginia Mountaineers: +2500
• Kansas State Wildcats: +3300
• Texas Tech Red Raiders: +6600
• Kansas Jayhawks: +10000

Looking at the latest Big 12 Conference Championship odds, Kansas State has the eighth-best odds at +3300. Only the Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6600) and the in-state rival Kansas Jayhawks (+10000) have worse odds to win the Big 12. If Lance were to transfer to Kansas State, you’d have to believe the Wildcats title odds would have them in the TCU Horned Frogs range at +2000.

Though there are plenty of great quarterbacks in the Big 12, such as Spencer Rattler of the Oklahoma Sooners, Sam Ehlinger of the Texas Longhorns, Spencer Sanders of the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Brock Purdy of the Iowa State Cyclones, Lance has the best pro prospects of any of them at this point, although Rattler is only a redshirt freshman and a former five-star recruit.

It might be a bump up in terms of competition, but Lance should be able to seamlessly transition to Big 12 play after dominating the FCS level in the manner he did. Though he could theoretically transfer to a more high-profile school than Kansas State, the connection with Klieman and the programs’ perceived similarities would make for about as effortless of a transition as possible.

Though Lance starring in the Little Apple would be great, he may just get ready for the NFL Draft.

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