Fansided

5 darkhorse players we never thought could have a great 2020 season

By Tre LyDay

SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 22: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres plays during a baseball game against Houston Astros at Petco Park on August 22, 2020 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 22: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres plays during a baseball game against Houston Astros at Petco Park on August 22, 2020 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 08: Dominic Smith #22 of the New York Mets at bat during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on June 8, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 08: Dominic Smith #22 of the New York Mets at bat during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on June 8, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images) /

Dominic Smith. 3. Pick Analysis. 1B. New York Mets. player. 3. Scouting Report

There’s no chance the Mets thought they were going to get the production they’ve gotten from Dominic Smith this season. He’s legitimately been one of if not the best hitter for the Mets this season, even if the advanced metrics don’t agree.

With the universal DH and Yoenis Cespedes opting out it’s given Smith and the Mets and extra spot to get his bat in the lineup with he’s not playing left field. He’s barreling over 17 percent of the balls he puts in play, but he’s outperforming his xSLG (even though it’s already top 8 percent in baseball) and his xWOBA.

How has he done it? Well, he’s absolutely mashed breaking balls and completely outperformed the expected numbers on offspeed pitches. Smith is slugging 1.333 on breaking balls and .750 on offspeed pitches.

When Smith actually hits it hard it usually breeds good results, as it does for everybody else. The only problem is that hard contact isn’t happening often enough. His regression is mostly dependent on whether or not he stops getting lucky or if he starts making more consistent hard contact. He’s outperforming his xwOBA and his xBA. He only swings at 24 percent of first pitches 71 percent of pitches in the zone.

The Mets will certainly take the production he’s giving them and hopefully he can keep it going, especially with the struggles of former Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso.

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