5 darkhorse players we never thought could have a great 2020 season

The San Diego Padres acquired Jake Cronenworth in the trade that landed them Tommy Pham from the Rays. Ever since arriving in San Diego he’s done nothing but hit the ball. He’s second in baseball with a .507 xwOBA.

Since wOBA is partly calculated by the quality of contact it helps that one, he doesn’t strike out very often and two, his quality of contact is through the roof. His strikeout rate is only 13 percent and the league average is just over 23 percent. He’s also barreling 15 percent of pitches, he has a hard-hit rate of 46 percent and has a sweet spot percentage of 50 percent. That’s how you have a higher xwOBA than his teammate Fernando Tatis.

Believe it or not, he’s actually underperformed his expected stats this season especially his slugging percentage which is 137 points lower than his xSLG. His 178 wRC+ would be good for second among second basemen if he had enough games played there to qualify for Fangraphs’ leaderboard. His 1.2 fWAR is second among rookies trailing only Seattle Marines outfielder Kyle Lewis, and is higher than the likes of Luke Voit, Mike Trout and his teammate Manny Machado.

There’s really not one single pitch type that gives him problems at the plate. His highest whiff percentage on any pitch type is offspeed pitches and it’s only 29 percent, pair that with the fact he’s still slugging 1.000 on that pitch with a .557 wOBA, and you get a guy who is really hard to get out.

If you had to pick one player who’s probably not going to encounter any major regression it would be Cronenworth. Baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports, but his contact numbers make it a little easier to predict that he’s going to continue to have success this season.