The Whiteboard: 3 adjustments to save the Milwaukee Bucks

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Dropping their second Game 1 in a row was one thing, but when the Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 2 against the Miami Heat in a controversial finish on Wednesday, their struggles in the NBA bubble became impossible to ignore any longer.

The Bucks are in serious trouble, and if head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn’t seriously tweak his approach, it’ll be the second straight year where the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference — with the likely MVP winner on its roster — goes home empty-handed.

With the buzz around Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee already reaching a fever pitch, we kind of need the Bucks to make this a series again, for the sake of all our sanities. The vultures are already circling the wagons, ready to pick at the same superstar who’s catching a ton of flak at the moment. In order for Milwaukee’s league-best season to be preserved, here are three adjustments Bud needs to make ASAP.

Shorten. The. Damn. Rotation.

This one is inexplicable. Giannis Antetokounmpo should be playing more than 36 minutes in a close playoff game, especially with his team already down 0-1 in the series. It’s indefensible, and a look at the Game 2 minutes for other starters like Khris Middleton (33 minutes), Eric Bledsoe (31) and even Brook Lopez (32) is infuriating.

This isn’t some random first night of a back-to-back in January. It’s the damn NBA playoffs. Bud has to shorten the rotation and stop giving bench guys like Marvin Williams (1-for-6 in 22 minutes) and Pat Connaughton (a minus-19 in just 12 minutes) so much leeway.

The Bucks bench has been awful through the first two games of this series, getting outscored 59-45 by the Heat bench and accumulating a total point differential of minus-7 compared to Miami’s plus-8. That’s a 15-point difference in a series where the total difference has been 13 points.

Milwaukee has to give its starters a breather at some point, but it’s outrageous Budenholzer continues to nonchalantly trot out the same rotations he used in the regular season. What’s he saving Giannis and Middleton for, their upcoming offseason that’s about to arrive 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule? Why is he subbing Giannis out five minutes into the first quarter and then again with 7:28 left in the fourth quarter and the Bucks trailing by nine?

Trusting your bench is something good coaches do. Adjusting to an opponent based on matchup and series flow is something great coaches do, and it’s been the difference so far between Budenholzer and Erik Spoelstra, who’s simply coaching circles around his competition right now.

Win the turnover battle

This isn’t necessarily a tactical adjustment, but the Bucks have to stop feeding Miami’s offense with turnovers and transition opportunities. Milwaukee had the NBA’s best defense before the NBA hiatus, but thanks to all these turnovers, the Heat have been able to get their offense going before an elite half-court defense even gets set.

Through the first two games, the Heat are averaging 25 points off turnovers per game, compared to just 11.5 per game for the Bucks. That is a massive difference. In the regular season, Miami only managed 16.2 points off turnovers per game, compared to Milwaukee’s 16.6 per game.

The Bucks are averaging 16.5 turnovers per game (up from their pre-bubble average of 15.1 per game), while the Heat are only coughing it up 13.0 times per game (down from their pre-hiatus average of 14.9 per game).

Miami has also flipped the script on Milwaukee’s high-powered transition attack. Through two games, the Heat are beating the Bucks 13.0-12.0 in fast break points per game. For reference, Milwaukee was third in the league before the hiatus with a whopping 18.0 fast break points per game … compared to Miami’s paltry 11.3 transition points per game.

The officials are letting Butler, Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala and Bam Adebayo play physical with Giannis, which has led to more turnovers and offensive turmoil than Budenholzer would like. The Bucks have to fight through that wall Miami has created in the paint and avoid the kinds of turnovers that are making life so much easier for the Heat to generate offense.

Tweak the defensive approach

As we’ve already covered in full detail, the Bucks’ defensive strategy of keeping opponents out of the paint is best thwarted by teams that aren’t afraid to launch from 3-point range. That weakness has been exposed in the bubble, which was only a matter of time in such a 3-point heavy league.

In 65 games before the suspended season, the Bucks were giving up 38.6 opponent 3-point attempts and 13.7 opponent 3-point makes per game. In 15 games in the bubble, those numbers have spiked to 42.5 long-range attempts and 15.5 makes per game.

That jump may not sound like much, but despite shooting a slightly better percentage from deep than Miami in these first two games, the Bucks are actually a minus-18 in points scored off 3-pointers. Those extra attempts are adding up, especially when Miami is shooting a tidy 38.2 percent from beyond the arc.

Completely scrapping their entire defensive system is obviously not an option, but Milwaukee has to dial it back before that disadvantage from 3-point range becomes even more glaring. Spoelstra has been one step ahead of Budenholzer every step of the way in this series, and though the Bucks actually outshot Miami from 3 in Game 1, it was one of their many downfalls in Game 2.

Change it up, Bud. Because if these slight adjustments of letting the starters get more run, winning the turnover battle and defending the 3-point line better don’t occur, it might not be long before the Bucks are looking for a new coach … and maybe even a new franchise star.

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