Houston Texans can pull off an upset over the Chiefs in Week 1 if these things happen
1. Let Deshaun Watson take shots on first down
The biggest concern Texans fans should have about their team’s offense heading into this game is that O’Brien may be too focused on establishing the run. If Houston starts running the ball on every first and 10 it’s going to make their offense entirely too predictable to defend.
Instead, the gameplan should focus on giving Watson chances to make big plays on first down. This game is likely going to end up as a track meet. That will require Watson to play great football to give his team a legitimate chance to win.
His best opportunities to make big plays down the field are going to come on first down. That’s when the Kansas City defense is more likely to give him vanilla fronts to digest. The blitzes are going to come in droves on obvious passing downs. Letting Watson take shots on first down gives him a better chance to work from a clean pocket.
This doesn’t mean Houston should abandon the run altogether. Mixing in some runs on first down will help keep Kansas City’s defense guessing. Something close to a 50/50 split between run and pass on first down should be the goal here. Anything less is going to make Watson’s life too difficult on Thursday night.