The Whiteboard: Celtics badly need a Kemba Walker Game

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Kemba Walker is not the only reason or even the main reason the Boston Celtics find themselves down 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Credit where credit is due: Erik Spoelstra has been the superior coach in this series, the Miami Heat have had a better sense of the right moments to strike, and, despite leading for 70 percent of the series heading into Game 4, the Celtics were still unable to close Games 1 and 2.

But given the disadvantages their undersized point guard presents on the defensive side of the ball, the Celtics desperately need a trademark Kemba Walker Game to keep hope of an NBA Finals berth alive.

Again, it should be noted that Walker is not having some awful series that’s swung these outcomes in Miami’s favor. He’s still averaging 20.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in a whopping 37.9 minutes per game through these first four matchups.

But even with his field goal percentage staying relatively level at 42.6 percent in this series, his 3-point efficiency has plummeted to 33.3 percent on 9.0 attempts per game — a steep decline from the 38.1 percent on 8.4 attempts he posted during the regular season.

Perhaps just as important, he hasn’t really had a game where he’s taken over with a bona fide, undeniable playoff moment. He put up 23 points on 9-of-19 shooting in the Celtics’ Game 3 win, but that rout — Boston’s only victory in the series — was the product of a solid team effort, not any Kemba “I got this” heroics.

Expecting anyone in Boston other than Jayson Tatum to carry this team to a series win is unrealistic, but wasn’t the whole point of adding Kemba to Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward to give this team a proven, veteran scorer? Someone who could create looks for himself or his teammates off the dribble when the offense broke down and this team needed a bucket?

That playoff dream hasn’t quite materialized for Walker since the first round, when he torched a banged-up Philadelphia 76ers squad with no Ben Simmons. In addition to compromising Boston’s defense on a possession-by-possession basis, he’s also been outplayed by Heat guard Goran Dragic, who’s averaging a team-high 21.8 points, 4.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game on much tidier .449/.370/.938 shooting splits.

For added measure, the Heat have been a plus-5 with Dragic on the floor; the Celtics have been a team-worst minus-14 with Kemba. If that’s not striking enough, the Heat with Dragic on the court boast a plus-0.6 Net Rating, which drops to minus-0.7 whenever the Dragon sits. Meanwhile, Boston’s minus-3.5 Net Rating with Walker on the court skyrockets to plus-15.9 when he rests.

It’s not just the point guard matchup with Dragic that stands out; it’s literally any matchup for Kemba on the defensive end. Therein lies the biggest problem, since Walker has been routinely targeted by Spoelstra’s offense. The switches Miami is generating to put Kemba in vulnerable spots is a domino effect that continually puts Boston’s defense in compromising situations.

In Game 1, players that Walker defended combined 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting, including 3-for-7 from deep — and that’s just players he was directly guarding, not including team breakdowns that resulted from his being targeted on that end. In Game 2, it was 23 points on 7-of-16 shooting, including 3-for-8 from deep.

In Game 3, a blowout win for Boston, Miami was unable to pick on him, and his primary assignments only tallied five points on 1-of-5 shooting. That encouraging trend didn’t hold in Game 4, unfortunately, as Spo got back to running him ragged through screens with the constant, off-ball activity of Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro.

Robinson was a non-factor in Game 4, but his elite dribble hand-off chemistry with Bam Adebayo has made him a problem for anyone to cover as he persistently scurries all over the court, running through screens to get quick looks from 3 that require little time or room for him to get the shot off. The problem has been exacerbated with Walker trying to get around all those screeners.

In Game 4, it was Herro’s time to shine, as the rookie’s shot-making and ability to create off the bounce made Boston pay each and every time he got that favorable matchup with Kemba. It was no coincidence the 20-year-old rookie erupted for a career-high 37 points on 14-of-21 shooting (including 5-of-10 from deep) off the bench.

Not all of that was on Walker, but the longer Brad Stevens left him on Herro, the deeper that potential series dagger was driven into Boston’s side. The biggest way to counteract those defensive shortcomings, and an elite coach like Spo who specializes in exposing them, is to register a couple of high-scoring nights.

It hasn’t happened for the Celtics star through the first four games of these conference finals, and that has to change soon in order for Walker to help his team make this a series again. Last summer, the Celtics felt good about turning a disgruntled Kyrie Irving into another crafty scorer who could create like Kemba. Now they need him to deliver with his own trademark playoff performance to put his stamp on this series.

This postseason is unlike any other in NBA history. Between the four-and-a-half month hiatus, unusual bubble environment, rampant coronavirus pandemic and widespread social injustice that takes a daily toll on predominantly Black athletes who have been vocal in speaking out, the mental strain of playing basketball right now is off the charts. This is also Walker’s first foray into meaningful playoff territory on a contender; he’s literally never been here before.

However, whether it’s in Game 5, Game 6 or Game 7 (should the Celtics manage to extend it that far) Boston will need a true Kemba Walker Game. He’s been noticeably outplayed by Dragic, and if that trend continues, it won’t be long before this LeBron James-less team is the new Heat iteration beating out Boston for a Finals berth.

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Recaps:

• BOS-MIA