College football picks against the spread: How to bet Week 9’s biggest games

College football picks against the spread for the biggest games in Week 9, including Ohio State at Penn State, Texas at Oklahoma State and Michigan at Michigan State.

This was supposed to be the week of Ohio State vs. Penn State. The Nittany Lions were the biggest threat to the Buckeyes just coasting into the College Football Playoff, at least on paper. Then, they lost to an up-and-coming Indiana team by literally an inch. Now, instead of a marquee Top-10 matchup, it’s a very muted Top-25 matchup with many saying it’s just another bump in the road on the way to Justin Fields getting his moment back in the spotlight.

Besides OSU-PSU, there is a very underwhelming week in college football. There are no other Top-25 matchups. Two Top 25 teams already had their games canceled because of a COVID-19 breakout. It’s down to 19 games wherein 18 of those games it’s upset watch and nothing else. This is why bettors both professional and inexperienced will be slinging money around to make this week more interesting.

All odds come from William Hill Sportsbook.

Week 9 against the spread picks in college football

No. 25 Boise State (-12.5) at Air Force

This is a matchup where bettors need to shop around. Boise State is getting 12.5 points from the William Hill Sportsbook, but other sportsbooks have them as high as 14-point favorites. That seems like too big of a risk for this very strange matchup. The Broncos have only won two of the past seven of these matchups against the spread, including the last two games. Basically, if you’re betting on Boise State, make sure it’s on the William Hill line because 14 points would push this bet much closer to Air Force, who has a defense that can slow just about anyone down.

Pick: Boise State (+12.5)

No. 24 Oklahoma (-14.5) at Texas Tech

Texas Tech is coming off a huge win against West Virginia. It’s not because WVU is good, per se, but more because the Red Raiders are probably bad and they need to take any win they can get. Now, they face a young but stacked Oklahoma team that has to win out and will not let up against any opponent. There have been a lot of comebacks in the Big 12 this season. Teams know that, so they aren’t going to take the foot off the gas in matchups like these. Feel confident in the 14.5 points, even if that extra half-point is stressful.

Pick: Oklahoma (-14.5)

No. 23 Iowa State (-28.5) at Kansas

Kansas showed some moxy two weeks ago against WVU, but right after that Pooka Williams Jr. opted out and now they look awful again. They were destroyed by Kansas State last week, and now they face another top team in the conference in Iowa State. The Cyclones are coming off a loss to the top team in Oklahoma State. They are looking to drive the ball as Brock Purdy is running out of opportunities to pad the stats. This is just a different Kansas team over the last week, and another blowout feels imminent.

Pick: Iowa State (-28.5)

Navy at No. 22 SMU (-14.5)

This is another game where the oddsmakers added an extra half point just to make bettors think long and hard. Navy is having an inconsistent season, and they have watched as teams make a run on them to put the game out of hand. Last week against Houston, they were up 13-9 in the second quarter before allowing 28 straight points. They also have close wins against ECU, Temple, and Tulane, while counteracting those with blowout losses to Air Force and BYU. SMU is coming off a disappointing loss to Cincinnati, and they are still short on the offensive side of the ball (Reggie Roberson Jr. and TJ McDaniel are both done for the season). Go after the points here, but it’s not a very confident bet.

Pick: Navy (+14.5)

No. 20 Coastal Carolina (-3.5) at Georgia State

Georgia State is coming into this matchup losing every single game in its history against ranked teams. Coastal Carolina is playing without its number-one quarterback Grayson McCall. Fred Payton is a fine option if he can’t go. Meanwhile, Quad Brown has been a very good passer in his own right. It’s an offensive matchup, with Georgia State ranking 11th in the country with 42 points per game. SMU is 21st with 37.7 points per game. With so many points hitting the board, taking the better team feels like the smart pick. That is Coastal Carolina.

Pick: Coastal Carolina (-3.5)

No. 17 Indiana (-11.5) at Rutgers

These two teams conquered the headlines in the first week of Big Ten matchups. Indiana had one of the biggest upsets of the season, beating Penn State right off the bat thanks to a gutsy two-point conversion call and a likely intense hot yoga session by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. that allowed him to stretch for the pylon to win the game. Meanwhile, Rutgers beat Michigan State to not only spoil Mel Tucker’s debut but also give the Scarlet Knights their first win in the Big Ten. Shoutout to Greg Schiano for continuing where he left off in New Jersey. Rutgers may have surprised the Spartans, but Indiana is actually a good team and Rutgers has a long way to go to keep this one close.

Pick: Indiana (-11.5)

No. 16 Kansas State at West Virginia (-3)

This line seems… odd. Kansas State has proven that their opening game loss to Arkansas State was a complete fluke, going undefeated in Big 12 play after four weeks. Yet, West Virginia is getting points one week after losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. What do the oddsmakers know that we don’t? WVU has a great defense, but the offense leaves its best unit in a bad position on about half their drives. There’s still love for Jarret Doege, which likely drives this line. This isn’t the team to put points on. Kansas State is 3-0 straight up when going into the game as the underdog.

Pick: Kansas State (+3)

No. 15 North Carolina (-6.5) at Virginia

This is a very bad matchup for Virginia. The Cavaliers are allowing 286 yards per game, which is ranked 86th in the country. North Carolina is still led by Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are getting a ridiculous 14.7 yards per completion. This is not going to go well, and the easy pick is the Tar Heels. This is one of the biggest locks of the week.

Pick: North Carolina (-6.5)

Michigan State at No. 13 Michigan (-25)

Michigan State either is facing one of the worst seasons in its history or had trouble getting up to start the season against Rutgers. It’s hard to tell which one it is right now, but there has to be no confidence in the Spartans right now. Michigan took a big win against Minnesota last week, bringing Minnesota back to Earth. Joe Milton looks legit, and he could be the quarterback that’s finally going to bring the Wolverines back to relevance. Like with everything Michigan football, this is way too early, but things look very, very good to start. This could be an epic one-sided matchup.

Pick: Michigan (-25)

Western Kentucky at No. 11 BYU (-28.5)

Western Kentucky has had a rough season, while BYU has been off the charts. Feels like it should be a blowout, right? Zach Wilson almost has 2,000 yards already under center, with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. The offense has been awesome the whole time. Dual-threat quarterback Tyrell Pigrome is the biggest threat to BYU in this game. Also, the WKU defense hasn’t been totally awful. This might be an overcorrection, or just BYU being due to fall below a spread. It just feels like WKU can cover this one.

Pick: Western Kentucky (+28.5)

Missouri at No. 10 Florida (-15)

It’s been three weeks since Florida felt the stinging defeat at the hands of Texas A&M. COVID-19 cases forced them to postpone their matchup with LSU. There was a total of 37 players who had contracted the virus on the Gators. This is everything in this matchup. Depending on who is sick and who may not play will determine how many points the Gators deserve. As long as Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts are healthy, it should be an easy win in Gainesville.

Pick: Florida (-15)

Arkansas at No. 8 Texas A&M (-10.5)

Arkansas has been very good to oddsmakers, covering the spread in every single game this season. They come into this matchup looking pretty good despite two losses. This is a defense that is putting the offense in amazing positions, leading the country with 10 interceptions. Texas A&M has looked really good this season, with a major win against Florida earlier this month. Kellen Mond has been a little too average this season, and Arkansas is just waiting for a game to put themselves on the map. This could be it. That +370 Moneyline is very intriguing. Either way, take the 10.5 points and run.

Pick: Arkansas (+10.5)

Memphis at No. 7 Cincinnati (-6.5)

Last season, Memphis-Cincinnati was the matchup of the year for the American Athletic Conference. This season, Memphis has fallen way below expectations in the post-Mike Norvell era. The Tigers took the Bearcats out twice last season, showing their dominance of the non-Power 5 teams. This season is just different for Memphis. They did eke out a victory over UCF after losing to SMU, but dominance is not on its agenda. Cincy is looking to make up for last year’s issues, and they destroyed that same SMU team that beat Memphis. This is going to be close to the line, but a 7-point win is coming from Cincinnati.

Pick: Cincinnati (-6.5)

Texas at No. 6 Oklahoma State (-3)

Texas is looking to save its season this week. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are the top dog in the Big 12 this season and the conference’s last chance to make the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns taking down Oklahoma State could save Tom Herman’s job. It’s the marquee win that Texas has been looking for all season. The Cowboys have done a really good job avoiding the big loss, but they’ve come close. The final score of the Iowa State game was closer than the game actually was, but they still allowed a touchdown near the end of the game. The Longhorns got off the snide last week against Baylor. Sam Ehlinger still doesn’t look all the way there, but this could be the game to make a statement.

Pick: Texas (+3)

No. 5 Georgia (-13) at Kentucky

Kentucky has been awful over the past three weeks, taking out all excitement Wildcats fans had before the season. A loss to Missouri was rock bottom for this team, as the offense put up just 145 yards. Georgia hasn’t played since its major loss to Alabama. They’ve had two weeks to recover and figure out how to get back into College Football Playoff contention. It would start with destroying Kentucky. The Bulldogs need to avoid turnovers (Kentucky forced 10 turnovers this season), and this will be an easy win. The quarterback is still the story here, despite Stetson Bennett holding on to his job for now.

Pick: Georgia (-13) 

No. 4 Notre Dame (-19.5) at Georgia Tech

After opening the season with a win against Florida State, Georgia Tech has been awful. Jeff Sims is playing like a freshman (8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions). The defense cannot stop anyone (they allowed 70 points to Clemson). It’s been a rough season. Notre Dame hasn’t really been that good for being a Top-5 team, but this is just an easy matchup for them. They rolled over Pittsburgh, so maybe this is the jumping-off point. This should be a spread that’s hit before the start of the fourth quarter.

Pick: Notre Dame (-19.5)

No. 3 Ohio State (-13) at No. 18 Penn State

After last week’s disappointing loss by the Nittany Lions, Ohio State comes in here with a massive spread. The Penn State running back group is very thin, meaning they will rely even more on quarterback Sean Clifford. The defense needs to make plays on Justin Fields if they have any chance in this matchup. It’s quickly becoming apparent Penn State needed its stars to step up from day one, and they did not on a literal day one. Ohio State holds the cards here, but there’s a reason this was the game Big Ten bettors circled at the beginning of the season. 13 points is just too high to put against Penn State coming off a loss. The last time there were more than 13 points between these two teams was 2015. They’ve also lost one home game in the past three seasons. This feels like a close game again.

Pick: Penn State (+13)

Mississippi State at No. 2 Alabama (-32)

Mississippi State has been wildly exposed since beating LSU in the first week of the season. Remember when K.J. Costello was getting “Heisman buzz”? That feels like a year ago. Alabama is getting a huge spread against a team that’s at least kept its Texas A&M game close. However, this is too many points. Alabama hasn’t won a game by more than 32 points this season. They score a ton of points, but the defense allows more points than most Crimson Tide defenses. It’s a really weird week for the Bulldogs, who see multiple players leave the team after head coach Mike Leach said the team needed a ‘purge’. That’s not the update bettors want to hear, but maybe it works as a motivation. Either way, they’ll cover this.

Pick: Mississippi State (+32)

Boston College at No. 1 Clemson (-31)

The biggest news in college football and in sports is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence testing positive for COVID-19. The Heisman front-runner will miss the game as a result and his status for Notre Dame next week is in question. The spread was 31 but has shrunk by nearly a touchdown, down to -24.5. That’s a significant movement for one player, but Lawrence isn’t just an ordinary player. Clemson should still win this game straight up but freshman D.J. Uiagalelei getting the start in place of Lawrence presents some uncertainty. He was the No. 1 pro-style quarterback and has played in limited duty this year, but expect a heavy dose of Travis Etienne in this game.

Clemson does have some key starters and contributors out on defense, so this could be closer than even optimistic Tigers fans are thinking. Clemson is used to facing massive point spreads, but they haven’t been great against the ones that count this season. Last week against a hapless Syracuse team, it took three-straight second-half touchdowns to pull away. Boston College is a much better team than Syracuse. The Eagles won’t win this game, but if they can use its defense to keep it close most of the game while the balanced offense does what it can to get the points it’s given, then this will be an easy cover.

Pick: Boston College (+24.5)

For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion, and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.