The Whiteboard: What a Chris Paul trade would mean for Suns, Thunder and CP3

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Excuse us if we’re still freaking out over the truncated NBA offseason that’s about to rip through trade season, draft night and free agency in a mere one-week span. But following Monday’s news about the upcoming schedule, the league sure didn’t waste any time diving into its first juicy rumor.

On Tuesday night, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps reported that the Phoenix Suns have had discussions with the Oklahoma City Thunder about a potential Chris Paul trade. While no deal is imminent, this is the first substantial, tantalizing bit of NBA news we’ve gotten in awhile.

So with less and less time to fully dive into each rumor as it comes along, let’s take a quick look at what a CP3 trade would look like, what the potential obstacles might be and how such an exchange would affect the Suns, the Thunder and Chris Paul.

For the Thunder

Let’s start with the obvious: As much as they would like to get the remaining two years and $85.5 million on Paul’s contract off the books, the Thunder aren’t just going to give him away. We’re talking about Sam Presti here, the guy who fleeced the Houston Rockets and LA Clippers for approximately 17 first-round picks in the Russell Westbrook and Paul George trades. Dealing from a position of power, he’s not going to just accept salary filler and be satisfied with getting out of the contract of a top-25 player.

After all, CP3 just led his team to the playoffs and did a hell of a job mentoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along the way. This group’s ceiling won’t suddenly elevate beyond “first-round playoff exit” next year, but there’s something to be said for helping SGA, Luguentz Dort and the rest of OKC’s young core grow up in a playoff-competitive environment.

To convince Presti to bite, especially in a market that will eventually provide other suitors for the 35-year-old Point God, the Suns will have to attach something attractive, either in the form of a first-round pick or a young player with potential. In other words, as much as a quality replacement floor general like Ricky Rubio and a 24-year-old Kelly Oubre coming off a career season represents a nice start, that alone won’t get it done.

For the Suns

Despite that enjoyable 8-0 run through the NBA bubble, Phoenix has not made the playoffs since 2010. Devin Booker has never enjoyed a winning season and only one season above 30 wins. The Suns finally have stability, a solid head coach, a promising young core that actually complements Booker and the potential to make their first postseason push in a decade. It’s no wonder they’re keeping their eyes peeled for moves that can really cement their status as a playoff squad in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Rubio was a terrific help for Booker in his first season with the Suns, more than living up to his contract with 13.0 points and 8.8 assists per game. As someone who relieved the pressure on Book to do everything, set him up for easier looks and defended well on the other end, Rubio was a godsend. Oubre, meanwhile, posted a career-high 18.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game on a respectable 35.2 percent shooting from 3-point range, invigorating the “Valley Boyz” culture and establishing the Suns’ identity even before Monty Williams arrived. Trading them both would threaten Phoenix’s fledgling chemistry that’s taken years to take shape.

With that being said, if the Suns can get away with Rubio, Oubre, salary filler and the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft, they should do that in a heartbeat.

Sure, they’d want to ask for OKC’s No. 25 pick in return, and yeah, there’s a chance CP3’s age and injury history could backfire, but Paul had a phenomenal year last season. Averaging 17.6 points, 6.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds on .489/.365/.907 shooting splits, Paul was the lifeblood of the 5-seed in the West, delivering clutch buckets, veteran leadership and mental toughness at every turn.

The Suns would love to have that kind of experience on their side as they seek to give Booker his first playoff appearance, and he’d be good for not only Phoenix’s superstar, but the sometimes unfocused Deandre Ayton, whatever point guard the Suns walk out of the draft with and other young cornerstones like Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. Going from Paul to Rubio is an upgrade, even with the $50.7 million price increase between the two over the next two years, and unless Oubre is willing to embrace an overpaid sixth man role, he’s expendable on an expiring contract based on what the Johnson-Bridges wing tandem has shown.

The problem is, will a package of Rubio, Oubre and No. 10 get the job done? Getting No. 25 in return would put Phoenix in position to draft Grant Riller or Desmond Bane, and Paul would be great for either prospect, but there’s no guarantee OKC would be willing to give that pick up. So can the Suns get away with a CP3 trade if they don’t offer one of Johnson or Bridges? Would OKC be interested in a short-term Paul replacement, Oubre heading into a contract year and the 10th pick in a less-than-stellar draft?

Knowing Presti, he’ll push for Phoenix to attach Bridges, Cam Johnson or maybe a future first-rounder instead. The Suns would have to think long and hard in such a case, and if the Thunder aim for one of those two young wings, it’d be genuinely shocking if they obliged.

For Chris Paul

There’s no way around it: As terrific as Chris Paul would be for the Suns’ upward trajectory, Phoenix isn’t exactly the title contender he had in mind (or major market that would help make up for playing on a non-contender). This would basically be like running it back with a more talented version of the Thunder squad he spent all of the 2019-20 campaign coaching up.

A Paul-Booker backcourt would be incredible, and the Suns would have a real shot at a top-5 seed if that momentum and solid two-way play we saw in Orlando proves to be sustainable. He’d reunite with his old Hornets coach and this team does have promise. But for CP3, this is most likely not what he had in mind for the last 1-2 years of his prime. His long-awaited first ring won’t materialize in Phoenix next season, even with gargantuan leaps from all three of Booker, Ayton and Bridges.

Then again, as much as the Thunder have taken into account the preferences of their stars in recent trade talks, if they like what Phoenix is offering, they won’t hesitate to send him to an up-and-coming squad without guilt. Thanks to Paul’s $41.4 million salary for the upcoming season, not many bona fide contenders can free up the space to deal for him anyway. This might be as good as it gets in terms of realistic trade destinations, and this union could be good for both sides if the Thunder’s demands aren’t too high.

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