NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 10 Sunday Slates
NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 10 Sunday Slates Running Backs
Ronald Jones, TB vs. CAR ($5,300-DK/$6,400-FD)
Jones has been missing in action the last two games, logging just 10 combined carries against the Giants and Saints. Although a key fumble and negative game script played a role in those downturns, respectively, and the matchup against the Panthers in Week 10 is an excellent one, many are likely to be off Jones due to recency bias. There’s no denying coach Bruce Arians can be unpredictable with the way he splits the backfield workload between Jones and Leonard Fournette, so there’s an element of risk; nevertheless, Jones had seen double-digit carries in five straight contests prior to the aforementioned two-week lull, so he remains in play for tournaments.
The Panthers have been easier to attack on the ground than through the air, Patrick Mahomes‘ aerial assault against them in Week 9 notwithstanding. Although their rushing-yards-per-game metrics have improved in recent weeks, Carolina is still allowing 4.53 adjusted line yards and 4.57 RB yards per carry. The Panthers are also surrendering an elevated 73.0 percent success rate on power runs, along with the ninth-most second-level yards (1.30) and eighth-most open-field yards (0.89) per carry. Jones is going to continue to split work with Fournette, but Jones is $200 cheaper on DK and is arguably the likelier to pace the duo in carries.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL at NE ($5,200-DK/$5,400-FD)
Dobbins has enjoyed his most extensive opportunity as a pro yet over the last two games while Mark Ingram has been sidelined with an ankle injury, rushing for 143 yards on 27 carries while adding three receptions for 13 yards during that span. Ingram does appear to be trending up for Week 10 as of Thursday after jumping back into practice, but given Dobbins has been solid in his stead and is still the healthier of the two backs, the rookie makes for an intriguing salary-saving tournament option against a weak New England run defense.
The Patriots come in allowing 131.0 rushing yards per contest, the eighth-highest figure in the league. New England’s other troubling metrics against the run include the fourth-most adjusted line yards (4.88), sixth-most RB yards (4.70) and fourth-most second-level yards (1.44) allowed per carry, along with the fifth-highest success rate surrendered on power runs (75.0 percent). Given Baltimore boasts the highest rushing play percentage (52.88) in the league and the Ravens offensive line is generating the sixth-most RB yards per carry (4.77), Dobbins could well have enough chances to pay off his reasonable salaries even if Ingram is available to play.