NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 14 Sunday Slates
NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 14 Sunday Slates Wide Receivers
Corey Davis, TEN at JAX ($5,700-DK/$6,800-FD)
Davis will undoubtedly be popular after his stellar afternoon in a losing cause against the Browns in Week 13, but that’s certainly not a reason to shy away in what amounts to another highly favorable matchup. The 2017 fifth overall pick seems to have his first career 1,000-yard season in the crosshairs after topping out at 891 yards over his first three campaigns, with Davis already totaling 801 over 10 games on the strength of a quartet of 100-yard efforts during that span.
The Jaguars are one of the most tempting defenses to target through the air for good reason — Jacksonville comes in with a No. 31 ranking in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (279.1) despite facing the league’s fourth-lowest passing play percentage (54.04), has surrendered the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (14) to wideouts and has yielded the fourth-most DK (43.1)/sixth-most FD (34.0) points per game to the position. And, the fact a good chunk of Davis’ work has come in the short right passing window (33 targets) is also a plus, as the Jags have given up a 74.8 percent completion rate, 805 yards and four touchdowns in that part of the field.
Antonio Brown, TB vs. MIN ($5,500-DK/$6,500-FD)
The Bucs are coming off a bye week and Tom Brady has had to endure plenty of questions about his fit within Bruce Arians’ offense, his recent rash of interceptions and his struggles to connect on the deep ball in Tampa. It’s therefore likely a safe assumption the future Hall of Fame quarterback and his highly aggressive head coach will come out firing in this excellent-weather matchup against a Vikings secondary that’s sprung leaks deep all season, making a player of Brown’s talent and salaries one of the more enticing receiver values of the week. That applies even though Brown has seen a much shorter-area role than he’s used to so far in his four games in Tampa, with a career-low 5.8 yards per target and relatively middling 10.4 aDOT.
Of course, that could change coming out of a week off during which Brady, Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich undoubtedly tinkered with the passing game some in the wake of two straight losses. Brown could thus thrive against a Vikings defense that’s given up 261.7 passing yards per game overall, along with a 66.7 percent catch rate and the second-most receiving touchdowns (19) to wideouts. It’s also worth noting Minnesota has given up a combined 1,208 passing yards and 12 passing touchdowns in the short and deep left passing windows, while Brown just happens to have logged his highest share of receptions (eight of 20) and targets (13 of 29) in those areas of the field.
Michael Gallup, DAL at CIN ($3,800-DK/$5,300-FD)
Speaking of highly appealing fantasy-point-per-dollar options at wideout, the athletic and increasingly involved Gallup certainly qualifies, sporting salaries that aren’t commensurate with his recent production or downfield role in a matchup against a poor secondary. Gallup has just two touchdown grabs on the season, but he’s now up to averaging a solid 6.6 targets per game after getting an impressive 19 looks from Andy Dalton over the last two contests, opportunities he’s parlayed into a 13-127-1 line.
The Bengals are facilitating a robust 37.5 DK/30.1 FD points per game to wideouts, the byproduct of a cumulative 154-1,948-14 line (234 targets faced) surrendered to the position. As mentioned in Dalton’s entry, Cincy is also giving up the highest average yards per attempt of any team on its home field, which dovetails nicely with Gallup’s 81.2 air yards per game and 12.5 aDOT. Then, the matchup is an even more ideal fit when considering Gallup has helped facilitate an impressive 135 passer rating for his QBs when being targeted in the deep left portion of the field by recording a 4-118-1 line on eight targets, while the Bengals have yielded 349 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt on the 29 throws they’ve faced in that passing window.