NBA DFS picks January 4: Should we fade all the stars?

NBA DFS Point Guards:

With the top two guards on the slate either not playing or not at 100%, it seems to be the right move to fade them both. The next question is who will have a better game, Trae Young or Curry? With the slower start to the season for Curry, I’m inclined to say Young. Especially after what Brogdon did to the Knicks over the weekend.

Conversely, De’Aaron Fox is in a great spot going against Curry. Fox gets a ton of volume and should see even more with Haliburton still out. I don’t trust SGA against the Miami guards, but Malcolm Brogdon has been playing at a high level even with Oladipo back. He’s one of the few priced this high that could hit more than 6x value.

If Harden is out, I’m going to lock in John Wall. If Luka is out, I’m also locking in Wall regardless of the status of Harden. I think it’s safe to say that one way or another, I’ll be pretty heavy on Wall tonight.

We could see Collin Sexton get more run with Garland out, but how much more of the load can he really carry for this team? Orlando hasn’t been as good against guards as usual, so there is potential here. Sexton doesn’t have the ceiling of Wall or Fox, but he might have a more stable floor with the matchup and without Garland.

I do like Jrue Holiday, but his production has been sporadic with the Bucks. That’s not likely to change anytime soon. To me, this looks like a place to rely heavily on Marcus Smart. Kemba is out and Teague might be. The Toronto guards are good, but the duo of Smart and Brown might be better. I like both of them tonight.

This is a nice spot for Goran Dragic. The issue with Dragic is that his ceiling is lower coming off the bench. Is there a guard that can get us more than 6x value near this price? On this slate there is. Elfrid Payton and Lamelo Ball are both capable of doing that.

George Hill is still a nice value with the role he is playing for the Thunder, but this Miami matchup is less than ideal. The return of MCW has also put a dent in Cole Anthony‘s playing time. The value is getting harder to come by at point guard, but Delon Wright still looks underpriced.

Cory Joseph is another excellent value with Haliburton out. For the money though, I would rather roll with Payton Pritchard with the state of the Boston guard corps. Theo Maledon is an intriguing option as well.