MLB: 8 hitters poised to bounce back from ugly 2020

7. Javier Baez

Javier Baez was one of the handful of players in baseball who was greatly affected by MLB’s restriction of in-game video as a result of the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. With no in-game footage it was tough for Baez to make adjustments with each at-bat.

He’s not going to walk a ton, and we know this. He’s only posted a walk rate above five percent once in his career. We know he hits the ball hard, and on a pretty consistent basis hence a hard hit rate of 40 percent or higher each of the past three seasons.

So where did the struggles come from?

For one, he wasn’t swinging at first pitches at the rate he normally does, going from 46.5 percent in 2019 all the way down to 39 percent in 2020. Secondly, he wasn’t making as much contact on pitches in the zone dropping from 75 percent in 2019 to 70 percent in 2020.

One thing that might be overlooked is the fact that he does serious damage against curveballs and he wasn’t doing that in 2020. Baez had posted run values of eight or higher each of the past two seasons against curveballs, but that dropped all the way down to -2 in 2020.

Over a 162-game season that might balance itself back out, but even then it would still be well below his usual output. Regression isn’t the worst thing in the world because it’s to be expected but the dramatic decreases in production Baez dealt with is something that should be taken with a grain of salt.

The law of averages say he should bounce back to his usual averages especially over a full 162-game season, and with the return of in-game video he should be just fine in 2021.