NBA Power Rankings: Mavs, Suns and James Wiseman’s critics

In this week’s NBA Power Rankings, Chris Boucher blocks everything, the Suns and Mavs are streaking and James Wiseman’s critics are feeling vindicated.

Our new look NBA Power Rankings are back, a non-traditional structure for a non-traditional era of professional basketball. The world is no longer just about wins and losses and teams are no longer the primary crucible of basketball power. So each week we’ll be dissecting how basketball power is presently distributed — between players, teams, friendships, diss tracks, aesthetic design choices, across leagues and whatever else has a temporary toehold in this ever-changing landscape.

Who has the power in this week’s NBA Power Rankings?

On Apr. 5, Chris Boucher sprinted from three-quarters court to close on a seemingly wide-open Garrison Matthews in the corner, rising to block his 3-point attempt.

That was the 11th corner 3-point attempt Boucher had blocked this season. That’s more than 28 other teams have managed this season. It’s also the highest single-season mark since the 2000-01 season, the earliest for which shot location data is available. No one else had ever managed more than eight. All that is to say, if you’re playing against the Raptors and Chris Boucher is on the floor, you’re never as open as you think you are.

I can’t decide what’s more exciting about this dunk — seeing KAT go off or knowing the kind of motivation and pettiness it’s going to inspire in Joel Embiid the next time the Wolves play the 76ers.

James Wiseman’s struggles shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Yes, he was taken with the No. 2 pick but many rookies struggle, particularly big men like Wiseman whose floor is tied more to athletic tools than to skill level. And expectations were always going to be higher for a team like the Warriors that opted to keep their pick rather than trade it and who will be looking to make a quick pivot back to contention. But it should be concerning that he’s also struggling in many of the exact areas that were identified by pre-draft critics.

James Wiseman was listed at No. 12 on The Step Back’s final big board, a reflection of specific concerns on the part of our primary draft writers Jackson Frank and Trevor Magnotti. From Jackson’s 2019 scouting report on Wiseman:

"Shooting projection is a significant and worthwhile exercise for prospects. It’s fair to look at Wiseman’s indicators and wonder if his confidence is simply ahead of his development as a shooter. Across that same string of EYBL games, he went 56-of-101 (55.4 percent) from the free-throw line and 4-of-27 (14.8 percent) from 3-point range. Neither number suggests a forthcoming evolution."

Wiseman has made 12-of-37 3-pointers (32.3 percent) but he’s shooting just 64.3 percent from the free-throw line and 32.5 percent on mid-range jumpers. He might become a decent floor-spacer at some point but he’s definitely not now and it will take some significant development for him to get there.

"It’s not as though Wiseman is a gifted passer exclusively aiming to refine his scoring prowess. While he’s capable of some interior feeds or hitting cutters from the low block, he’s largely a dreadful facilitator and amassed 14 assists to 44 turnovers during the 2018 EYBL circuit. If the shot selection wasn’t convincing enough as a red flag about his offensive upside, that ratio should be."

He’s at 59 turnovers to 25 assists so far this season and he’s averaged a turnover on one out of every five post-up possessions.

"Wiseman certainly accumulates a healthy number of blocks, though it seems to originate from poor discipline and features an inability to stay vertical on contests. He’ll pounce on subtle shot fakes or unnecessarily pursue blocks, sometimes to the detriment of his team.…What’s most concerning is how often Wiseman jumps against dudes significantly smaller than him. He has a 7-foot-6 wingspan and 9-foot-3.5 standing reach. Rarely should he leave his feet and yet, it regularly occurs when guards or wings enter the paint. It’s another example of him mitigating his size advantage. Generally, stars maximize their physical tools but Wiseman, on both ends, seems to do the opposite at an alarming rate."

Wiseman has racked up 36 blocks and 10 steals in 37 games, but also 117 fouls and 11 goaltending violations (the most in the league). That’s a pace of 6.8 personal fouls per 100 possessions and nearly three fouls per steal or block, a ratio that looks pretty awful even when compared to other rookie bigs from the past few seasons.

Opponents are shooting 61.5 percent within six feet of the basket when Wiseman is the closest defender, a bottom-10 mark among players who defend an average of at least five such shot attempts per game. That mark is roughly middle-of-the-pack compared to the rest of the rookie class but it’s worth noting that there six other rookies who have defended at least 100 field goal attempts in that range with a better defensive field-goal percentage — Xavier Tillman, Patrick Williams, Deni Avidja, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden McDaniels and Precious Achiuwa.

Again, nothing here is to say that Wiseman won’t continue to get better. But he hasn’t been outstanding at any one thing and he’s either under-performed or merely met the low expectations in every area of weakness. He does not look the part of a rookie with a future as a dominant interior defender. Or a stretchier floor-spacer. Or a versatile big who can handle and make plays in space. Who could have seen this coming?

After a three-point win over the Houston Rockets, the Suns have won six in a row and 11 of 14 since the All-Star Break. They’ve been hot all season long but every win pushes them further and further into territory they haven’t been in for a long time. Their SRS (strength-of-schedule-adjusted point differential) is currently plus-6.33, the sixth-highest mark in franchise history and their highest since 2005-06.

538’s ELO Rankings (another rolling measure of historic strength) illustrates just how strong the current Suns look compared to the past decade and the heights of the Nash-era.

The Dallas Mavericks are among a handful of teams who have been scorching hot since the All-Star Break but their surge seems particularly noteworthy considering how it’s happening. They’ve won 10 of their 15 games since the break but eight of those wins have come by double-digits, including a 40-point pounding of the Trail Blazers. And six of the 10 wins have come against current playoff teams, including the Blazers, Celtics, Knicks, Jazz, Clippers and Nuggets.

And driving this surge is, of course, Luka Doncic. Over Dallas’ past 15 games, he’s averaging 28.7 points, 8.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds on a 58.3 true shooting percentage. And scariest for opponents — he’s hitting 40.6 percent of 8.4 pull-up 3-point attempts per game. He’s completely unstoppable when he’s hitting that shot and the pressure it’s putting on defenses has helped open things up for everyone else. Over this 15 game stretch, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith are all hitting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc, with Maxi Kleber and Kristaps Porzingis just behind at 39.7 and 37.7 percent, respectively.

This might not a championship-level iteration of the Doncic Mavs’ but this is about as well as they could be playing with the current roster, which should be terrifying to any potential first-round playoff matchups.