NHL Playoffs 2021: 3 reasons the Minnesota Wild will win the Stanley Cup

1. Stability in net

Wild history is littered with goaltenders who had a calling card for ups and downs (Manny Fernandez and Devin Dubnyk at the top of the list, even within games at times). The acquisition of Dubnyk saved Minnesota’s season back in 2014-15, but he eroded into a replaceable goalie with a goals-against-average north of 3.00 last season.

Cam Talbot was not a signing that created a lot of buzz. But he has been fine in 30 games so far this season, with an 18-7-4 record, a .918 save percentage and a 2.57 goals-against. According to Money Puck, he is tied for 10th in the league in save percentage on unblocked shots and tied for sixth in expected save percentage on unblocked shots (.957).

With a compressed schedule and rest for the 33-year old Talbot in mind, rookie Kaapo Kahkonen has started 21 games entering Wednesday (22 appearances; 15-7 record). He has a .909 save percentage and a 2.69 GAA, with two shutouts. Going deeper, again according to Money Puck, Kahkonen is third in the NHL in expected save percentage on unblocked shots(.958).

The Wild are playing well in front of their goaltender tandem. According to Money Puck, entering Wednesday, Talbot and Kahkonen are sixth and 10th respectively in percentage of shot attempts blocked by a teammate. But as previously cited, they are stopping a lot of the shots they’re supposed to based on the expected save rate when shots get through. In 51 combined starts so far, they have combined for four “really bad starts”, defined by Rob Vollman of the Hockey Abstract as starts with a save percentage below 85 percent.

Teams regularly ride a hot goaltender through a deep run in the playoffs and sometimes said hot goalie carries his team all the way to the Cup. The Wild probably won’t get that kind of scorching run from Talbot or Kahkonen, if we’re being honest, and it’s likely they’ll continue to share time in the playoffs. But making the saves they’re “supposed to”, and coming up with an occasional clutch save, will give the team a chance to win more often than not. Simple stability between the pipes would be enough for the Wild to make a run that ends with hoisting the Cup.