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College football bowl games 2021: ATS expert picks for every bowl game

By Cody Williams

Nov 13, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 13, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports /
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Stetson Bennett, Georgia Bulldogs. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Stetson Bennett, Georgia Bulldogs. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

CFP Semifinal, Capital One Orange Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan (Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.)

Perhaps the biggest thing I’m trying to do for this game is forget the scar tissue from backing Georgia hard in the SEC Championship Game. Michigan could pull the Dawgs into, well, a dogfight that becomes a grind-it-out affair. In that game, though, I still trust the overall talent of Kirby Smart’s team to pull away when it matters and cover.

Pick: Georgia -8.0

Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. Arkansas (Jan. 1, Noon)

Sean Clifford and the Penn State offense just don’t scare me enough to think that they can take full advantage of an Arkansas defense that can be a bit suspect. More importantly, the weapons for the Hogs are good enough and deep enough that, in my view, they shouldn’t even be underdogs in this game.

Pick: Arkansas +2.5

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (Jan. 1, 1 p.m.)

Notre Dame really found its groove later in the season and got rolling, particularly finding what we all expected in the rushing attack. Oklahoma State, however, is a top-tier defense that I could see really causing a non-versatile Irish offense some problems. Whether the Pokes can score is the big question but their defense is enough for me to back them.

Pick: Oklahoma State +2.0

Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky (Jan. 1, 1 p.m.)

Well, don’t expect many fireworks from the Citrus Bowl with these two teams duking it out. But at the end of the day, what Iowa does best is force mistakes from opposing offenses. Kentucky quarterback Will Leavis has been more than willing to make those mistakes, hence why I’m backing the Hawkeyes.

Pick: Iowa +2.5

Rose Bowl Game: Utah vs. Ohio State (Jan. 1, 5 p.m.)

This has nothing to do with opt-outs. When we’ve seen Ohio State be up against it this season, it’s been because the Buckeyes have lost physicality battles. That’s the exact way Utah wants to roll and how they toppled Oregon, making this line just a bit too high for me to consider the Buckeyes.

Pick: Utah +6.5

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m.)

The job Dave Aranda has done with Baylor has been phenomenal. With that said, very few defenses have had answers for Matt Corral and Ole Miss and the Bears aren’t nearly talented enough to match the ones that did. The quarterback playing in this game ultimately leads me to take the Rebs.

Pick: Ole Miss – Pick ‘Em

TaxAct Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Kansas State (Jan. 4, 9 p.m.)

It’s never not hilarious that there’s a straggling bowl game — just one — after the New Year’s Six games. As for the Texas Bowl, LSU is in a bit of disarray right now with many of its best players now out of the program. Pair that with a Kansas State team that always plays hard, the Wildcats are an easy choice to cap off our bowl season picks.

Pick: Kansas State -1.5

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