March Madness: 5 high seeds destined for an early NCAA Tournament exit

1. Top March Madness seeds that could suffer an early exit – Providence Friars

It has been a feel-good season for Providence, which came out of nowhere to secure their first-ever Big East regular-season title, a monumental achievement for one of the conference’s founding members. Ed Cooley’s team doesn’t have a true NBA talent on the roster but plays better than the sum of its parts, a formula that is ideal for March Madness success in most years.

This year’s Friars are an exception since they have gotten remarkably lucky, winning a bunch of close games, having three key Big East contests canceled due to a COVID outbreak, and taking advantage of opponents that were not at full strength (they beat Wisconsin minus Johnny Davis, Seton Hall with seven players, and UConn without Adama Sanogo). Playing that many close games is a recipe for disaster in March when your talent base isn’t equal to some of the teams you will face in the NCAA Tournament.

There are already signs of regression for the Friars down the stretch, who got swept by Villanova in the final weeks of the regular season and got blown out by Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. Providence also isn’t an offensive juggernaut and prefers to play at a slower pace, which could be a problem given its first two opponents.

There is a good shot that the Friars may not survive 13-seed South Dakota State, which scores over 86 points per game and is knocking down nearly 45 percent of their three-point attempts. Even if Providence wins that game it is hard to see them getting past 5-seed Iowa, which has a ridiculously efficient offense with a bona fide star in Keegan Murray, so it would not be wise for your bracket to send the Friars deep into March.

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